[NEWS OF THE DAY]

The US becomes India’s largest trade partner, is India-China trade decoupling?

India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry’s latest data shows that the US has become India’s largest trading partner, exceeding China’s with bilateral trade reaching USD 119.42 billion. From the breakdown data, India’s trade exports to the US increased from about USD 51.62 billion in the previous fiscal year to US$ 76.11 bn, while imports increased from about US$ 29 billion to about US$ 43.31 billion. India’s major exports to the US include polished diamonds, pharmaceutical products, jewelry, light oil and petroleum, frozen shrimp, cosmetics, etc. India’s imports from the US are mainly oil, liquefied natural gas, gold, coal, recycled products, scrap iron, large almonds, etc. The data also shows that the bilateral trade volume between India and China in the 2021-2022 fiscal year is about USD 115.42 bn, an increase of about 1/3 from the US$ 86.4 bn in the previous fiscal year. Among them, India’s exports to China are about US$ 21.25 bn, and its imports to China are about US$ 94.16 bn. (here)

Global crude oil prices decline on fears of recession, weak demand outlook

International crude oil prices have come off their recent highs and declined on fears of the possibility of a recession in the global economy following aggressive monetary policy tightening by central banks and the likelihood of a weak demand outlook for the commodity. Ongoing Covid-led lockdown in parts of China too led to a decline in the prices. Also, international crude oil prices declined amid recession fears followed by aggressive monetary policy tightening by central banks. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are currently trading at around $110/barrel, as against its recent peak of around $123/barrel. The near-term support lies at $98/barrel while resistance at $123/barrel, said Tapan Patel, Senior Analyst (Commodities) at HDFC Securities. (here)

Will not tolerate any transgression by China, says NSA Doval

Even as border talks between India and China continue, National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval strongly addressed the question of Chinese forays into Indian territory and said that India will not tolerate any transgression by China. Speaking to ANI on Tue, Doval talked about external security measures taken by India after its border standoff with China. Two years after the 2020 Galwan clash, both countries have held several rounds of military and diplomatic talks to resolve the standoff. Disengagement at some border points has taken place but by and large, there is an impasse on complete disengagement. Responding to the question of whether China has put on hold its expansionist policy concerning India, NSA Doval said: “There had been some ‘unsavory incidents’ in 2020. We had been able to — through talks, negotiations, and persuasion — have resolved some of it, but few points remain to be resolved. (here) ‘Would like normal relations but…’: NSA Ajit Doval warns Pakistan- Doval on Tue warned Pakistan that while India is keen on ‘normal relations’ its ‘tolerance threshold for terrorism is very low’. Doval said the mood in Kashmir had changed after 2019 – a reference to the terror attack in Pulwama in which over 40 Indian soldiers died for their country after a CRPF convoy was targeted by a suicide bomber linked to a Pak-based terror group Jaish-e-Mohammed.

Maharashtra political crisis: Sena to take action against MLAs siding with Eknath Shinde, says Sanjay Raut

Maharashtra Minister Eknath Shinde and 25-35 Shiv Sena MLAs have gone incommunicado since the MLC poll results were declared on Mon. CM Uddhav Thackeray is slated to host a meeting today over the development.

• NCP chief Sharad Pawar on Tue alleged that a 3^rd attempt was being made to pull down the Maha Vikas Aghadi govt in Maharashtra. He added its Shiv Sena internal matter.
• 33 MLAs attended Uddhav Thackeray’s meet, claimed Shiv Sena’s Sanjay Raut
• Sena’s Milind Narvekar and Ravindra Phatak were not allowed to meet rebel MLAs in Surat
• State BJP chief said, “It’s too early to say anything, we’re currently waiting and keeping an eye on the situation. Nor Eknath Shinde has sent a proposal to BJP for govt formation neither BJP has sent any proposal to him.”

Anti-Agnipath protest: Fresh PIL in SC challenging Agnipath scheme -Another Public Interest Litigation was filed in the Supreme Court by advocate ML Sharma on Mon challenging the ‘Agnipath’ recruitment scheme for defense forces, saying the scheme is “illegal and unconstitutional”. The plea filed by advocate ML Sharma sought quashing of the Centre’s notification for the Agnipath scheme.

• Police raid coaching center of Bihar’s Danapur violence accused-Patna Police conducted raids in Patna at various locations connected to Bihar’s Danapur violence accused Guru Rahman, officials informed on Mon.
• NSA Ajit Doval tells ANI: ‘If we have to prepare for tomorrow, we have to change’- The whole war is undergoing a great change. We are going toward contactless wars, and also going towards the war against the invisible enemy. Technology is taking over at a rapid pace. If we have to prepare for tomorrow, then we have to change. Amid apprehensions that the newly launched Agnipath military recruitment scheme would change the composition of several regiments that recruit youths from specific regions as well as castes, said the regimental system will remain untouched under the scheme.

[NATIONAL]

Yashwant Sinha, former Union minister, announced joint Opposition’s Presidential candidate

Former union minister Yashwant Sinha on Tue was named as the joint opposition candidate for the presidential polls. The decision to name the 84-year-old leader as the presidential candidate was announced by a meeting of the opposition leaders in the national capital. Sinha, a civil servant-turned politician, has served as a union minister in the govt led by Chandra Shekhar and Atal Bihari Vajpayee. Sinha’s name came up after Pawar, Gopalkrishna Gandhi and Farooq Abdullah opted out of the race. The parties that attended the meeting included Congress, NCP, TMC, CPI, CPI-M, Samajwadi Party, National Conference, AIMIM, RJD, and AIUDF. 5 regional parties are considered non-aligned – TRS, BJD, AAP, SAD, and YSRCP- stayed away. These parties had also stayed away from the Jun 15 meeting convened by TMC.

India to take part in BRICS, Commonwealth, G7 summits

The next few days will be packed in terms of a slew of summits with high-level Indian Participation starting with the 14^th BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) summit that will take place on 23^rd Jun, which will take place virtually under the chairmanship of Chinese President Xi Jinping. Xi will also host the High-level Dialogue on Global Development in Beijing on Jun 24^th according to the Chinese foreign ministry. Xi will also address the opening ceremony of the BRICS Business Forum in virtual format on 22^nd Jun. It will be followed by the commonwealth summit in Rwanda’s capital Kigali from Jun 24^th to 25^th, and India being represented in person by External Affairs Minister Dr. S Jaishankar. The last, and perhaps one which could get a lot of focus is the G7 summit that will take place from Jun 26 -28, 2022 at Schloss Elmau in the Bavarian Alps, Germany, which will be attended by PM Modi, and during the sidelines of the summit is expected to hold several bilaterals. (here)

‘Agniveers’ are about meritocracy and accountability, will officers follow suit?

Amidst all the noise, outrage and uncalled-for arson over the ‘Agnipath’ model of military recruitment, selected ‘Agniveers’ at the end of the day will represent the victory of merit over long-practiced mediocrity in the Govt of India. It will also, in turn, impose accountability at the level of commanding officers and generals who, in the past, routinely got away with 10/10 outstanding appraisals and promotions. The Ministry of External Affairs has recommended the compulsory retirement of two senior IFS officers under clause 56 J of Fundamental Rules this month as the Modi govt moves towards merit cum seniority, not the other way around. The Modi govt is for merit-cum-seniority, and not the other way around, and is clear on removing bureaucratic deadwood despite legal hurdles, which is evident in the appointment of military chiefs, particularly in the case of present Army chief General Manoj Pande and CDS in the near past. However, heads of ministries, military, and intelligence are facing a peculiar situation while removing deadwood or appointing to key posts, as most civil services officers got top appraisals in the past and it is a legal hurdle to justify their removal. (here)

Cross-voting in MLC polls: Uddhav Thackeray calls emergency meeting of all Shiv Sena MLAs

After suspected cross-voting in Maharashtra MLC elections, Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray has called an urgent meeting of all Shiv Sena MLAs on Tue. According to sources, all MLAs have been strictly asked to remain present in the meeting. Meanwhile, Bal Thackeray loyalist Eknath Shinde will be addressing a press conference in Surat today at noon. Maha Vikas Aghadi candidate from Congress Chandrakant Handore had lost in the MLS polls. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) bagged five seats, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and Shiv Sena won two each while Congress was able to clinch one seat out of the total 10 seats in Maharashtra Legislative Council (MLC) that went to polls on Monday. Taking to Twitter, BJP leader Kirit Somaiya said, “Maharashtra Vidhan Parishad election results – Shiv Sena (Mafia Sena) got 52 votes. 12 MLA’s revolted (55 Shiv Sena + 9 supporters = 64) Uddhav Thackeray’s Mafia Sarkar’s count down started.” As many as eleven candidates were in the fray for the elections to the ten seats in the MLC. All the five candidates of the BJP — Pravin Darekar, Ram Shinde, Shrikant Bharatiya, Uma Khapre and Prasad Lad emerged victorious. NCP candidates– Ramraje Nimbalkar and Eknath Khadse– and the Shiv Sena nominees- Aamshya Padavi and Sachin Ahir also secured their seats. Of the two candidates fielded by Congress, Bhai Jagtap secured the win while Chandrakant Handore lost. BJP’s winning candidate claimed that cross-voting happened among members of Shiv Sena and Congress.

Heat pushes wheat yields to a 20-year low

The official data from crop-cutting experiments, which help scientists determine yields, show the extent of the damage. A scorching summer (temperature crossed 40^oC in Mar) linked to the climate crisis in Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh, 3 breadbasket states, saw wheat productivity decline the most in two decades, HT reported. This year’s losses come on the heels of a similar heatwave in 2010 and a milder one in 2019. Punjab’s wheat yields dipped to 4300 kg/hectare. On average, yields fell by 20% a hectare, sharper than the 8% fall in 2010. Farmers say they have been pushed deeper into debt, having suffered losses of anywhere between ₹12,000- ₹18000 a quintal (100 kgs). Such losses prompted the agriculture ministry to project an estimated 5% overall fall in output to 106.41 million tonnes this year from an initial forecast of 111.32 million. A 2016 govt report on the impact of climate change on India’s agriculture, one among many, projected that a 2.5 – 4.9^oC temperature rise could trim wheat yields by 41%-52%. The direct impact showed wheat yield losses of between −1 and −8%, while indirect impacts, such as drying irrigation sources, show higher losses, from −4% to −36%. (here)

Int’l Yoga Day: Yoga not for any individual, but entire humanity, PM Modi says

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday extended greetings on the eighth International Yoga Day and said that yoga is not for any individual, but the entire humanity. “Today, Yoga is being practiced in all parts of the world. Yoga brings peace to us. The peace from Yoga is not only for individuals, it brings peace to our nations and the world,” PM Modi said.  Nepal Prime Minister Sher Shah Deuba on Tuesday participated in a program organized by the Indian Mission in Kathmandu on the occasion of the 8th International Day of Yoga.

Ruchira Kamboj appointed as the next Ambassador/Permanent Representative of India to the United Nations, at New York

Ms. Ruchira Kamboj (IFS: 1987), presently Ambassador of India to Bhutan, has been appointed as the next Ambassador/ Permanent Representative of India to the UN in New York. She is expected to take up the assignment shortly.

[NEIGHBORHOOD]

EU companies in China pay the price for Brussel’s stance on Xinjiang

Doing business in China is becoming “more complex and expensive” for European firms which are finding themselves increasingly caught in the geopolitical struggle between the world’s second-largest economy and the West. EU business leader Joerg Wuttke said human rights concerns over Xinjiang are posing a major challenge to European companies in China. Wuttke, who heads the EU Chamber of Commerce in China, was speaking on Mon, ahead of legislation coming into force in the US to ban the import of products linked to controversial labor programs in Xinjiang, where China is accused of detaining a million Uygurs and other ethnic minorities in re-education camps. The issue has also become one of the most contentious between China and Europe, where several countries have also passed or are contemplating human rights due to diligence laws aimed at claims of forced labor in Xinjiang. (here)

A new Quad? Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand eye four-way anti-China summit on sidelines of Nato meet

SCMP-Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand are considering holding a 4-way summit on the fringes of a Nato leaders’ gathering in Spain next week, (source). The envisaged meeting on the sidelines of the transatlantic security alliance gathering is seen by the 4 nations as an attempt to keep an assertive China in check in the Indo-Pacific after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine heightened concerns about its implications for a region where Beijing has been expanding its influence. Japan has sounded out to South Korea about the possibility of the quadripartite meeting, the source said on Mon. Leaders are expected to deepen cooperation in realizing a free and open Indo-Pacific and may discuss increased support for Pacific island nations (sources). China and the South Pacific nation of Solomon Islands signed a security treaty earlier this year that would reportedly allow the deployment of Chinese troops, a development if realized, that would spark concerns among regional powers such as Australia, New Zealand, and the US and Japan. Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand are not members of Nato but have been invited as partners to the summit. The 4-way meeting would add a new dimension to the multilateral cooperation framework in pursuit of a free and open Indo-Pacific, QUAD. (here)

Unicef says 1.6m children stranded by floods in Bangladesh need urgent help

Four million people, including 1.6 million children, stranded by flash floods in northeastern Bangladesh are in urgent need of help, said the United Nations Children’s Fund (Unicef) here Mon (June 20). In a statement, Unicef said it is on the ground to protect children and to deliver emergency water and health supplies. “Children need safe drinking water right now. Preventing deadly waterborne diseases is one of several critical concerns,” said, a Unicef representative to Bangladesh. He said Unicef has already dispatched 400,000 water purification tablets that can support 80,000 households with clean water for a week. (here)

Maldives orders probe after mob disrupts Yoga Day event organized by Indian Cultural Center

The Maldives government has ordered a probe after a mob disrupted a Yoga Day event being held in a stadium in the archipelago’s capital, Male, and allegedly threatened the attendees. Taking to Twitter, President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih said the Maldives Police have launched a probe into the incident. In a video tweeted by BNN Newsroom, the mob can be seen storming the Maldives National Football Stadium, as attendees scramble to safety. The event had been organized by the Indian Cultural Center in collaboration with the island nation’s Ministry of Youth, Sports, and Community Empowerment.

Govt ready to make more ‘difficult’ decisions if needed: PM Shehbaz

Pak Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Tue said that the govt is ready to make more “difficult” decisions if needed, hoping that the rich people will support the nation in the tough economic situation the country is going through. Speaking to journalists after a meeting of the federal cabinet, the premier again blamed the previous PTI-led govt’s poor performance for the deteriorating economic conditions. “The previous govt reduced the price of petrol and laid a trap for the next govt,” he said, adding that the economic conditions are worsening across the world as commodity prices are rising. PM Shehbaz revealed that the current coalition govt is giving Rs2,000 to 700 million deserving people and that the government has imposed taxes on the rich people in the budget for the next fiscal year 2022-23. Earlier, sources told Geo News that after the much-awaited revival of the IMF program, the premier will take the nation into confidence regarding the conditions of the agreement, clarifying that the recent hike in petroleum prices has nothing to do with the Fund. (here)

Rupee breaches 211-a-dollar barrier on delay in the revival of IMF program

The Pakistani rupee remained highly volatile and continued its losing streak against the US dollar on Tuesday, losing Rs2 in the interbank market despite Finance Minister Miftah Ismail claiming that the International Monetary Fund program will be revived within the next 2 days. The dollar closes at Rs 211.48, after appreciating Rs2 against Mon’s record high of Rs 209.96. The latest fall is attributed to quarter-end payments and a delay in the revival of the IMF program. “Currency will continue to fall until Pakistan manages to strike a deal with IMF,” an analyst says. (here)

Afghanistan, Iran reach agreement over Helmand Water Treaty: Taliban

Afghanistan and Iran have reached an agreement over the Helmand River Water Treaty, local media reported quoting a Taliban member. The water of the Helmand River will be shared with Iran based on the Helmand Water treaty signed in 1973 between the two countries, reported Tolo News. The 1973 treaty between the two states that Kabul will share the water from the Helmand River with Tehran at the rate of 26 cubic meters of water per second, or 850 million cubic meters per annum. Taliban member Barakutullah Aryoubi stated that mutual stations and facilities will be established on both sides of the Helmand River. (here)