[NATIONAL]

Defense supplies to India continue from Russia amid the Ukraine conflict but the payment remains an issue

ANI -Amid the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, defense supplies from Moscow are continuing as the Indian defense forces have received a shipment of overhauled aircraft engines and spares. However, there is concern about whether this would continue shortly as a solution for making payment to Russia has not yet been found. The Indian and Russian sides are working to find a way this issue can be overcome and many options are being explored. The latest supplies from Russia included overhauled fighter aircraft engines and spares for an aircraft fleet and they arrived through the sea route, the sources said. India also received the final parts of the S-400 Triumf air defense system from Russia whose first squadron is operational with its elements deployed. India is one of the largest users of major platforms like fighter jets, transport aircraft, helicopters, warships, tanks, infantry combat vehicles, and submarines. Over the last couple of decades, it has broadened its source base by including equipment from countries like the US, France, and Israel in a big way but the dependence on Russia is still prominent.

UK PM Boris Johnson is likely to visit Gujarat on April 21

TOI-UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is set to visit his Indian counterpart’s home state of Gujarat on Apr 21 as part of his India visit. The British PM is expected to visit India from April 20-24. (sources)- Even though the final schedule of the British PM visit is being planned, Johnson is likely to visit Ahmedabad and Vadodara during his day-long visit here. He will visit the Sabarmati Ashram in Ahmedabad along with the new manufacturing facility of British construction equipment manufacturer JCB near Vadodara.

Ukraine war impact on food, energy security focus as Jaishankar meets UN chief

The meeting comes between the foreign minister and S Jaishankar and UN chief Antonio Guterres on Thu, comes days after India and the US held 2+2 ministerial talks where, apart from bilateral ties, the Ukraine conflict was also a matter of discussion. The Ukraine war, its global impact, and the Afghanistan crisis came up for discussion. India has repeatedly urged for the cessation of violence, and most recently, PM Narendra Modi also raised concerns with US president Joe Biden. In a post, Jaishankar wrote: “Spoke about the latest developments in respect of Afghanistan and Myanmar. Appreciate his interest in working with India to effectively address important contemporary challenges (sic).” The Ukraine war enters the 51^st day on Fri and the UN has warned the conflict will affect small countries. Earlier this week, PM Modi had said that India was ready to supply food stocks to the world if the WTO permitted it.

A phone call between PM Modi and Trong, General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam

Prime Minister Narendra Modi had a phone call today (Fri) with Nguyen Phu Trong, Gen Secy of the Communist Party of Vietnam. It’s the 50^th anniversary of the India-Vietnam diplomatic relation. They expressed satisfaction over the rapid pace of wide-ranging cooperation under the India-Vietnam Comprehensive Strategic Partnership which was established during the PM’s visit to Vietnam in 2016. The PM reiterated Vietnam’s importance as an important pillar of India’s Act East Policy and Indo-Pacific Vision and sought to enhance the scope of the bilateral relationship, besides working for expeditious progress on existing initiatives. PM also requested greater facilitation of market access for India’s pharma and agri-products in Vietnam. The leaders agreed to enhance the defense partnership between the two countries, along with the regional and global issues of shared interest, including the ongoing crisis in Ukraine and the situation in the South China Sea.

4 LeT terrorists shot; 3 jawans die in an accident

Four Lashkar-e-Taiba terrorists were shot in a cordon-and-search operation by security forces in J&K’s Shopian on Thu before a road accident involving a vehicle ferrying reinforcements to the encounter site inflicted 3 casualties on the Army too.

IS, al Qaeda Cyber Propaganda Banks on Translated Text, Local Upheavals Like Hijab Row to Spread Terror

News18-After the Easter Sun serial blasts in Sri Lanka in Apr 2019, Islamic State and al Qaeda propaganda was diversified from English and Arabic to vernacular languages, including Tamil, Malayalam, Hindi, Urdu, and Bengali among others, and disseminated for instigating a wider audience. As far as India is concerned, IS leaders are found to have given calls for arson attacks and targeted killings of right-wing leaders or atheists, police personnel, and foreign tourists.

Navy working with HAL to develop 50 UH (Marine) choppers for warship requirements

ANI – The Indian Navy and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited are looking at developing a new Utility Helicopter (Marine) to meet the warship requirements of the force. If the development of the new variant of the Advanced Light Helicopter Dhruv is done successfully, the Indian Navy would be looking at placing orders for 50 of these choppers which would help it to deploy choppers on its warships on the high seas. The development of choppers at the helicopter division of the public sector undertaking is being torn up after HAL claimed to the forces that it has been successful in the development of foldable rotors, (sources). The Navy has more than 150 warships in its fleet and wants them to be equipped with at least one each and is looking at procuring through the Make in India route first. For the Indian Navy also, the HAL has been offering a maritime version of the Dhruv but not much could be done due to the lack of capabilities. The force will soon get its first set of the 24 MH-60 Romeo choppers from the US which were contracted for in a Foreign Military Sales deal a couple of years ago to meet the urgent requirements of multirole attack and anti-submarine warfare choppers.

Egypt approves India as a wheat supplier, announces Piyush Goyal

ANI – Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal announced that Egypt has approved India as a wheat supplier. The Egyptian delegation, which is on an India visit, examined Indian grains which involved touring fields and grain warehouses as well as export warehouses in different Indian provinces. Earlier in the day, the President of the Egyptian Council of Ministers stated on their official FB account that their delegation discussed cooperation with the Indian Ministry of Agriculture, including the Egyptian agriculture exports to India. Egypt among the world’s biggest wheat importers was earlier dependent on Ukraine and Russia for wheat but now the govt has been seeking alternative supplies from countries including India and France. Though India is not among the top ten wheat exporters in the global trade. India’s wheat exports are mainly to neighboring countries with Bangladesh (54%) in 2020-21. In 2020-21, India entered new wheat markets such as Yemen, Afghanistan, Qatar, and Indonesia. The share has increased from 0.14% in 2016 to 0.54% in 2020. India is the second-largest producer of wheat with a share of around 14.14% (107.59 Million MT) of the world’s total production in 2020. While the unit export price of wheat has increased for all countries in the last 5 years, India’s unit export price is slightly higher than that of other countries. This is one of the factors adversely impacting wheat exports from India.

[NEIGHBORHOOD]

China warns of Ukraine-style ‘tragedy’ for Asia in US Indo-Pacific plan

In a phone call with his Vietnamese counterpart, the Chinese foreign minister warns Washington’s strategy is damaging to regional peace. Bui Thanh Son says his country’s stance on the Ukraine issue shares many similarities with Beijing and welcomed further talks. Wang has also met in recent weeks with his counterparts from other members of the ASEAN, including Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Myanmar. -“The US has tried to create regional tension and provoke a confrontation by pushing forward the Indo-Pacific strategy,” Wang said.

US Congress delegation pledges support for Taiwan in event of an attack from mainland China

The lawmakers meet President Tsai Ing-wen in her office on the latest visit from senior US politicians to show support for the island. A bipartisan group of US lawmakers have pledged support for Taiwan on a visit to the island and said they were confident America would come to its aid if it was attacked by mainland China. Led by Bob Menendez, the Democrat who chairs the Senate’s foreign relations committee, and Republican Lindsey Graham, the 6-member group met President Tsai Ing-wen in her office on Fri. Republican senator Lindsey Graham tells Tsai that to abandon Taiwan would be “to abandon freedom and democracy and reward the worst of humanity”. [It is worth recalling that the top defense advisor of the US had raised his hand that the US cant fight in Taiwan by sending its force, what all we can do is to prepare them to fight with the mainland and keep Beijing in illusion. However, securing Indo-Pacific is in the interest of the west.]

South Korea seeks to attend the Quad summit as an observer in May

Asia Nikkei citing an official reported that South Korean President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol has unofficially approached the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue about attending the group’s upcoming summit in Japan as an observer, as the incoming leader pursues stronger ties with Tokyo and Washington. The Quad, which consists of the U.S., Japan, India, and Australia, serves as a counterweight to growing Chinese clout in the Indo-Pacific region. Its leaders plan to meet during a trip by U.S. President Joe Biden to Japan in late May.

China announces cut reserve requirement ratio to boost the economy, releasing US$83.2 billion into the banking system

China’s central bank has announced a cut to its reserve requirement ratio (RRR), or the amount of cash that banks must hold in reserve, to shore up its slowing economy. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said on Friday it will cut the ratio for commercial banks by 0.25 % points. Small commercial banks and selected rural lenders will benefit from a further reduction of 0.25 percentage points, as authorities try to help under-pressure small and micro-businesses.

8 Pak soldiers killed in terrorist attacks in North Waziristan

ANI – 8 Pakistani soldiers were killed in two terrorist attacks in the North Waziristan district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province on Thu, reported Dawn. As per a statement issued from the military’s media wing Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the first attack took place in Datakhel town of North Waziristan when terrorists ambushed a moving military vehicle. Terrorists used assault guns and a rocket-launched grenade in the attack. Bodies of killed soldiers were moved to Miramshah, the administrative headquarters of North Waziristan in a military helicopter. The second attack between armed forces and insurgents took place in the Isham region of North Waziristan district, where Mianwali Sepoy, was killed, a local media reported citing military media wing ISPR. A total of 105 army personnel lost lives in terrorist attacks with the first 3 months of this year recording 97 soldiers and army officers. In the corresponding period of attacks, 128 terrorists were killed and 270 have been arrested-ISPR.

US ‘agrees’ with DG ISPR’s statement on no ‘foreign conspiracy’ to oust Imran

Dawn-US State Department has said the US agreed with the statement given by the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) a day ago wherein he dismissed an impression of a foreign “conspiracy” to oust former prime minister Imran Khan’s govt. The senior US official made this statement during a press briefing in response to a question from a journalist. “ISPR said they had no evidence to suggest that the US had threatened or was involved in the conspiracy to seek the ouster of Imran Khan’s govt. What are your comments on it?” the journalist had asked.

IS, al Qaeda Cyber Propaganda Banks on Translated Text, Local Upheavals Like Hijab Row to Spread Terror

News18-India’s war on terror faces a fresh threat from the cyber propaganda of the Islamic State (IS) and al-Qaeda who are trying to radicalize vulnerable youth of the country to disturb peace where they are residing.

• After the huge success of Coalition Forces in IS-controlled territories of Syria and Iraq, Hijrath (migration to ISIS theatre) have been decreased.
• However, this has not stopped the IS leaders from instigating their sympathizers and supporters around the world.

So far as India is concerned, IS is found to have given calls for arson attacks, targeted killings of right wing leaders or atheists, police personnel and foreign tourists, Hindu religious symbols and calls were made to target religious festivals.

• In the latest move by the outfit, IS’s India-centric online magazine ‘Voice of Hind’ listed out lone wolf attack techniques for sympathizers.
• Bhatkal-based arrested IS cadre Jufi Jawhar Damudi was recruiting youth from different parts of the country for exclusive translation of terror propaganda material to regional dialects.

The timely arrest of Damudi was a massive blow to IS propaganda machinery, which was aiming to disseminate voluminous vernacular propaganda materials through cyber platforms.

• Akey Islamic state operative, Jufri Jawhar Damudi alias Abu Hajir Al Badri, from Bhatkal in Karnataka, along with another accomplice Ameen Zuhaib in connection with NIA’s probe into ISIS’ online propaganda ‘Voice of Hind’ (VoH), officials said, on Aug 7^th 2021.

In another worrying trend, both IS and al Qaeda are trying to utilise local conflicts and domestic issues by instigating vulnerable youth in communally sensitive areas.

• For instance, al Qaeda-affiliated magazine ‘Nawai Ghazwa e Hind’ and India-centric ‘Voice of Hind’ had published cover stories on the recent Hijab controversy in Karnataka.
• al-Qaeda Central had recently published a video by its chief Ayman Al-Zawahri trying to fish on the Karnataka Hijab row.
• In a video, Zawahri praised Muskan Khan, a hijab-clad girl, who came into the limelight for confronting a mob of boys who were opposed to women wearing the hijab.
• Zawahiri called Muskan his sister and said that he wrote a poem praising her courage.
• The thumbnail of the video and the poster that accompanied the upload was titled ‘The Noblewoman Of India’.
• The terrorist said that he was made aware of Muskan Khan’s actions through social media.
• He accused the govt of allegedly mistreating Muslims living in the country and asked the community to react to the hijab controversy.
• After the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan in Aug 2021, al-Qaeda initiated waves of cyber propaganda against Indian interests with a focus on the Kashmir issue.
• Sympathizers of the terror outfit were elated with the Taliban victory and urged supporters to emulate the same in Kashmir.
• This may be also been seen as an attempt to boost Qaeda-linked Ansar Ghazwatul Hind (AGuH) terrorists in J&K, as most of the AGuH cadres were eliminated.

Violence had erupted last weekend during Ram Navami processions in Goa, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, and West Bengal.

• On Apr 14, Madhya Pradesh BJP chief VD Sharma alleged that the PFI funded the arson and stone-pelting in Khargone, which led to a curfew being imposed in the area.
• Speaking to News18, BJP Yuva Morcha chief Tejasvi Surya, too, accused the PFI of instigating communal tension.
• Stopped from proceeding to the stone-pelting site in Karauli in Congress-ruled Rajasthan.

Centre Likely to Ban PFI Amid Allegations of Outfit Plotting Ram Navami Violence, Say Sources

News18-The Union govt is soon likely to ban the controversial outfit Popular Front of India (PFI) which has been blamed for the violence and communal tension in parts of India during Ram Navami last week.

• (Sources)-the govt is likely to make a decision this week. They added that preparations for the ban have been completed and a notification is likely to be announced soon.
• The PFI, an Islamic organization, is already banned in several states, but the govt now plans to ban the outfit through a central notification.

Jharkhand: Role of ‘sleeper cells’ suspected in Lohardaga violence

ANI – Sub-divisional officer (SDO) of Jharkhand’s Lohardaga Arvind Kumar Lal has suspected the involvement of sleeper cells in the violence that broke out between two groups in the Hirhi village of Jharkhand’s Lohardaga on Sun and appealed to the people not to be misled by rumors.

• Lal further said that there has been communal harmony in the district in the past few years, however, there are sleeper cells that have emerged recently who are trying to disrupt the harmony of the place.
• However, the Deputy Commissioner termed it “improper to say anything at this point of time” due to the ongoing investigation.
• There was a heavy force deployment in Lohardaga, especially in the violence-hit area.
• A special investigation team (SIT) has been constituted to investigate the reason behind the clash in which one person lost his life and several others were injured.
• Notably, soon after the clashes, section 144 was imposed. Several people were injured after clashes broke out in the Hirhi area, after stone-pelting during Shobha Yatra.
• Several vehicles were also torched during the violence.

Why India has been soft on Russia? Take a look at its military, diplomatic, and energy ties

Moscow as a strategic partner

On a range of fraught global issues, India has long avoided adopting a firm position based on its status as a nonaligned state – one of several countries that are not formally allied to any power bloc. From a strategic standpoint, New Delhi believes that they can ill afford to distance Russia because they count on Moscow to veto any adverse UNSC resolution on the fraught question of Kashmir. Soviets and Russia have used their veto power six times to protect India

• Since the partition of the subcontinent in 1947, India and Pakistan have fought 3 wars over Kashmir, and the region continues to be a source of tension.
• India has relied on Russia’s veto at the UN to protect itself from any adverse statement on Kashmir.
• For example, during the East Pakistani crisis of 1971 – which led to the creation of Bangladesh – the Soviets protected India from censure at the UN.
• But with tension over Kashmir still high amid sporadic fighting, New Delhi will want to ensure that Moscow is on its side should it come before the UNSC again.
• India is also hopeful of Russian support – or at least neutrality – in its long-standing border dispute with China.
• India and China share a border of more than 3,500 km, the location of which has been contested for 80 years, including during a war in 1962 that failed to settle the matter.
• Above all, India does not want Russia to side with China should there be further clashes in the Himalayas, especially since the border dispute has again come to the fore in 2020.
• The relationship between the two countries isn’t just about defense and diplomacy.

60% to 70% of India’s conventional arsenal is of Russian origin.

• A look at how soft power binds the two old allies together Russia a supplier of weapons India is also acutely dependent on Russia for a range of weaponry.

• Over the past decade, New Delhi has sought to significantly diversify its weapons acquisitions.
• To that end, it has purchased more than US$20 billion worth of military equipment from the US over the past decade or so.
• Nevertheless, it is still in no position to walk away from Russia as far as weapons sales are concerned.
• To compound matters, Russia and India have developed close military manufacturing ties.
• For nearly two decades, the two countries have co-produced the highly versatile BrahMos missile, which can be fired from ships, aircraft, or land.
• India recently received its first export order for the missile, from the Philippines.
• This defense link with Russia could be severed only at a considerable financial and strategic cost to India.
• Also, Russia, unlike any Western country including the US, has been willing to share certain forms of weapons technology with India.
• For example, Russia has leased an Akula-class nuclear submarine to India.
• No other country has been willing to offer India equivalent weaponry, in part over concerns that the technology will be shared with Russia.
• In any case, Russia can provide India with high-technology weaponry at prices significantly lower than any Western supplier.
• Not surprisingly, despite significant American opposition, India chose to acquire the Russian S-400 missile defense battery.

Energy reliance

• India’s energy sector is also inextricably tied to Russia.
• Since the Bush administration ended India’s status as a nuclear pariah India has developed a civilian nuclear program.
• Although the sector remains relatively small in terms of total energy production, it is growing – and Russia has emerged as a key partner.
• After the US-India civilian nuclear agreement of 2008 allowed India to participate in normal civilian nuclear commerce, Russia quickly signed an agreement to build 6 nuclear reactors in the country.
• No Western country has proved willing to invest in India’s civilian nuclear energy sector because of a rather restrictive nuclear liability law.
• But since the Russian government has said it will assume the necessary liability in the event of a nuclear accident, it has been able to enter the nuclear power sector in India.
• West, however, are unwilling to provide such guarantees to their commercial companies.
• Away from nuclear power, India also has invested in Russian oil and gas fields.
• India’s state-run Oil and Natural Gas Commission has long been involved in the extraction of fossil fuels off Sakhalin Island, a Russian island in the Pacific Ocean.
• And given that India imports close to 85% of its crude oil requirements from abroad, it is hardly in a position to shut off the Russian spigot.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently noted that India’s relationship with Russia has developed over decades at a time when the US was not able to be a partner to India” and suggested that Washington was prepared now to be that partner.

But given the diplomatic, military, and energy considerations, it is difficult to see India deviating from its balancing act over Russia any time soon.

[NEIGHBORHOOD]

China warns of Ukraine-style ‘tragedy’ for Asia in US Indo-Pacific plan

In a phone conversation on Thu, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has told his Vietnamese counterpart, Bui Thanh Son that the Ukraine crisis is an important time for the two countries, which together can “make contributions to regional peace” in the face of the “damage” caused by the US Indo-Pacific strategy.

• Wang said the Ukraine issue “has once again made Asian countries realize that maintaining peace and stability is precious and indulging in group confrontation will lead to endless risks”.
• China has been under pressure from the US and EU for refraining from calling Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February a war.
• Instead, China has backed Russia’s “reasonable security concerns” and accused the US and NATO of driving the conflict.
• Like China, Vietnam was one of more than 30 countries to abstain from voting on UN resolutions condemning Russia.
• Vietnam is also being wooed by the US, which has pledged to strengthen its ties with Hanoi and others in the region as part of its Indo-Pacific strategy, published in Feb.

Chinese foreign ministry-“The US has tried to create regional tension and provoke a confrontation by pushing forward the Indo-Pacific strategy,” Wang said.

• “..We cannot let the Cold War mentality return to the region and the Ukraine tragedy to repeat around us.”
• Son welcomed China’s role in facilitating peace talks to end the conflict and said there were similarities in their position.
• He also expressed a wish to continue communication on the issue.
• Wang has also met in recent weeks with his counterparts from other members of the ASEAN, including Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Myanmar.

The diplomatic push comes ahead of a Southeast Asian trip by Japanese PM Fumio Kishida later this month, in which he is expected to visit Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam, seeking to strengthen cooperation on the war in Ukraine and “the vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific amid China’s rise”, according to a Kyodo news agency report.

• China reaches out to neighbors as Ukraine war fuels tensions with the US

• In his call on Thu, Wang said China would continue to supply Covid-19 vaccines to Vietnam while also hoping for more cross-border railway services.
• Wang again called for the early signing of a code of conduct for the South China Sea, where Beijing has overlapping territorial claims with several ASEAN countries.

Wang said the situation in the South China Sea “remained generally stable with the joint efforts of China and ASEAN countries” and accused “some forces outside of the region with ulterior motives” of wanting an unstable situation in the waterway.

• Beijing has been pushing for a code of conduct, which is expected to be more legally binding than the existing Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea.
• However, little progress has been made with both sides understood to be unable to find common ground or a mechanism to ensure the code is effectively implemented.

China holds military drills as US delegation visits Taiwan

HT-China on Fri deployed fighter aircraft, bombers, and warships around self-ruled Taiwan as a visiting US Congressional delegation signaled support for the island, a tour termed by Beijing as “provocative” and raising tension in the region.

• China conducted the multi-forces drill in and over the area around Taiwan and the East China Sea, the People’s Liberation Army Eastern Theatre Command said on Fri.
• The statement was released on the mainland as the US lawmakers were holding a news conference in Taipei.
• Separately, Beijing urged the US to fulfill its commitment to not support “Taiwan independence” with real actions instead of saying one thing and doing another.
• According to the PLA, the large-scale drill was called a “joint patrol readiness combat” with an emphasis on naval assault.
• The PLA has intensified drills around the island, frequently deploying ships and aircraft, in recent months but blames Washington.
• In Feb, a US warship sailed through the Taiwan Strait as part of what the American military called a “routine” transit through international waters.
• However, the move was criticized by the Chinese state media as “sending the wrong signal” amid the Ukraine crisis.
• Worries have grown in Taiwan following Russia’s invasion given the fact that China’s top leadership frequently mentions reunifying the island with the mainland.

“This operation is conducted targeting the recent wrong signals the US sent on the Taiwan question,” the PLA command said in a statement, adding: “The wicked tactics of the US are useless and dangerous. Those who play with fire will burn themselves.”

South Korea seeks to attend the Quad summit as an observer in May

Asia Nikkei citing an official reported that South Korean President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol has unofficially approached the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue about attending the group’s upcoming summit in Japan as an observer, as the incoming leader pursues stronger ties with Tokyo and Washington.

• The Quad, (U.S., Japan, India, and Australia), serves as a counterweight to growing Chinese clout in the Indo-Pacific region.
• Its leaders plan to meet during a trip by U.S. President Joe Biden to Japan in late May.
• The attendance of Yoon, who will take office on May 10, will mark the first time S Korea participates in a Quad gathering.
• He will also consider holding separate two- and three-way talks with Biden and Japanese PM Fumio Kishida.
• Yoon has repeatedly called for a thaw in S Korea-Japan relations, which deteriorated under outgoing President Moon Jae-in.
• But historical issues between the two countries remain an emotionally charged topic.
• The deadline for the sale of Japanese corporate assets seized as compensation for Koreans forced to work for them during World War II is approaching as well.
• Some on the Japanese side argue that South Korea will need to make some concessions for Kishida and Yoon to meet.
• Logistics may stand in the way, given that Yoon will have taken office just weeks before.
• If Biden chooses to visit S Korea before Japan, Yoon may prioritize holding a two-way summit there over participating in the Quad gathering.
• In May, Quad is expected to discuss its response to China’s increasing presence in the Indo-Pacific region, as well as to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The Quad aims to present a united front by regional powers that share common values like democracy, and adding S Korea would only increase the group’s weight in the global community.

• Meeting virtually with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Mon, Biden suggested that the Quad summit will be held around May 24.
• Preparations are being made for Biden to arrive in Japan on May 22, a top Japanese official said.
• Meanwhile, Australia will hold its federal election on May 21.
• Some observers say that Prime Minister Scott Morrison might not be able to make the trip to Japan, depending on the outcome.