Newsletter 19 April (Weekly)

Top of the Week

Corona second wave spiraled in India
Jaishankar, Qureshi in Abu Dhabi as UAE seeks ‘functional’ ties between India, Pakistan
The Maldives seeks essential commodities supply from India as foreign minister meets Jaishankar
‘India remains engaged with Afghan stakeholders’ — MEA after US decision to withdraw troops

India records the highest single-day rise of 2,61,500 cases, 1,501 deaths due to New UK Strain of Chinese Virus

India on Sun recorded another highest-ever spike of 2,61,500 coronavirus infections, taking its total Covid-19 cases tally to 1,47,88,109.

India also reported 1,501 new fatalities in the last 24 hours. With this, the death toll in the country due to the virus has increased to 1,77,150.

As of now condition (1348 hrs IST)

	Total Cases	New Cases	Total Deaths	New Death	Total Recovered	Active Cases	Serious/Critical	Tot Cases/m pop	Deaths/m pop	Tests/M pop
World	141,330,976	44,768	3,024,608	1,295	120,075,472	18,230,896	107,103	18,131	388
USA	32,361,280		580,756		24,909,770	6,870,754	9,824	97,315	1,746	1,287,450
India	14,788,109	5,648	177,168		12,809,643	1,801,298	8,944	10,633	127	191,650
Brazil	13,900,134		371,889		12,344,861	1,183,384	8,318	65,028	1,740	133,796

(Figure to explain the condition in global prospect, see figs placed at the end)

However, only a couple of important issues will be discussed here

A) How situation become alarming?

B) What about vaccination

A- How situation become alarming?

1. New Strain (UK) is more infectious than the previous one though the fatality rate is similar:

a. A new strain of coronavirus identified through Public Health England’s genomic surveillance in the United Kingdom is up to 70% more infectious but it is not thought to be more deadly and vaccines should still be effective, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and England’s Chief Medical Officer, Chris Whitty said on Dec 19, 2020.

b. “This virus has taken off,” he said of the mutation. “It’s moving fast and it’s leading inevitably to a sharp increase in hospital admissions.” Adding to this Indian scientific fraternity also supported the same facts sometimes at the start of this year.

c.Later on Mar 21^st, the Business Line published that the spike protein in coronavirus, which is used by the pathogen to latch onto the host’s cells, is more stable in the new variants of Covid-19.

2. Indian mindset provided with hugely dense population

a. Still, the Indian mindset is running as somewhere it was during the British colonial era, which needs policing at every time, whatever conditions may be. Despite, the consistent announcement, advertisements, cautions, etc, from both, center and state machinery, people lost their fear of the pandemic and started behaving as nothing has happened, at least from the start of this year. You can’t blame here to the system as it fails to make people aware because ignorance is done by aware people only. The virus still didn’t reach to unaware ones, which may also if migrants started returning home.

b. Here, one important thing also needs to underline that while some ‘Modi haters’ were still considering this calamity as Modi’s created paranoia on other hand some supporters, who had faith in some ‘supernatural power’ were thinking as “nothing is going to happen, at least me, because of ‘n’ number of reasons until such critical condition didn’t arrive. Nevertheless, India is a country that invested a lot in the advertisement for the polio vaccine.

c. People started gathering from Jan at the place of worship. One of the classical examples is gathering at Kumbh, which alone responsible for ‘1257 positive identified cases’. This was preponed on the appeal of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, yesterday.

3. Democracy: the Indian politics:

Consider few facts: There are state assembly elections in 5 states West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerela, and one UT Puducherry, while only WB is set to finish the election in 8 phases that could be clamped in 5 only. For this, the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC: a state-based party), blamed the center that since they (BJP, party ruling in the center) have no manpower in WB, that’s why they forced Election Commission (a constitutional body) to conduct the election in 8 phases so that they can deploy their manpower properly. Countering to this, BJP alleged TMC that they made such a worst situation of the state, like killing and torturing of political candidates, that EC has to announce the election in 8 phases.

a) BJP fights most of the elections on Modi’s face because he can attract a mob on his own.

b) “Have Witnessed Such A Rally For The First Time…”: PM Modi In Bengal. The opposition has been questioning the PM’s continued active involvement in election rallies as the country battles a deadly second wave of infections.

c) Modi has addressed 25 rallies so far, 9 of them in West Bengal (294 seats).

d) BJP said the party plans to hold a total of about 20 rallies and each of his rallies covers 10-20 assembly seats. On average considering 1 lac people per rally, some 20 lakhs of people come in contact with each other. Only in WB where active cases are 45.3K, with active cases ratio 7% in a population of 9.7Cr. This too, as per official data, the reality will much higher indeed.

d) While PM Modi has canceled most of the meetings with foreign dignitaries, but the election campaign going on.

4. Delegation of power from the center to state to manage the situation

a) After the last time experience, it seems that the center becomes more confident about control of pandemics, despite, the alarming condition in the UK.

b) More so, due to the state’s pressure of budget crunch, the center has delegated the power of lockdown to states and asked them to decide.

c) The Disaster Management Act, 2005 (DM Act), was invoked on March 24 to impose a blanket lockdown to ensure “consistency in the application and implementation of various measures across the country”. Accordingly, sweeping guidelines were issued for state governments to follow.

5. The crushing economy can't afford another lockdown:

Covid cases have registered a “V-shaped” recovery at the last count, India had 1.75 times more daily cases now than the past peak, which was in Sept 2020. What does this mean for the Indian economy and its recovery?

a) Without the latest surge, the first half of the current financial year — that is, from Apr to Sept — was expected to register a “V-shaped” recovery. But, of course, this V-shaped recovery is quite different from the V-shaped spike in Covid cases.

b) Because the recovery in economic growth in the first half of the current financial year will be an optical one.

c) In other words, because the GDP contracted by as much as 15% in the first half of the last financial year, the low base effect will ensure that the GDP growth rate looks very handsome in the first half of the current financial year.

d) But, in terms of the absolute level of GDP (not its growth rate), India would not be adding as much.

e) In terms of the absolute level of GDP, India would not be adding as much. According to Crisil, by the end of 2021-22, GDP will only be approximately 2% higher than March 2020 level. More importantly, the absolute GDP would be roughly 10% below its pre-pandemic trend level.

f) Do note the consistent gap between the pre-Covid trend (red line) and the new trend (black line). This gap represents the permanent loss of 11% of GDP in real terms over the fiscal years 2021-22 through to 2024-25 that the Indian economy will suffer even after the expected recovery.

g) As such, the news could get worse. A case in point is the second wave of reverse migration of laborers.

h) Moreover, the latest surge threatens not just the overall income levels but also its distribution.

6. Well-known, ‘Lack of proper medical infrastructure’ can't afford this ‘additional load’.

B- Vaccine for the Corona Virus

a. Use entire national capacity to step up Covid vaccine production, PM tells officials:

Amid a record spike in Covid-19 cases, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sat directed officials to make all efforts to utilize the entire national capacity, in public as well as the private sector, to ramp up vaccine production, while overseeing an assessment of oxygen supplies and production and distribution and the Govt announced stepped up support to Bharat Biotech’s Covaxin and also financial grants to specific facilities in private and public sector to increase vaccine production.

b. India has so far administered a total of 12.25 crore doses of Covid-19 vaccines till Sat 8 pm, including 1.61 crores are second doses.

c. In a separate meeting with high burden states, the health ministry noted India is clocking the fastest case growth of 7.6% in new cases, 1.3 times higher than the case growth rate of 5.5% reported in June 2020.

d. The growth rate of cases is leading to a sharp rise in the daily number of active cases, currently at 16.7 lakh as also growth of 10.2% in deaths.

e. The production capacity of Remdesivir has been increased to deliver around 74 lakh vials/month in May, against the normal capacity of around 27-29 lakh/month.

Sputnik V, Covishield, Covaxin: What we know about India's Covid-19 vaccines

Russia’s Sputnik V has been deemed to be safe and works in a way similar to the Oxford-AstraZeneca jab which is being made in India as Covishield.
Sputnik V gives around 92% protection against Covid-19, late-stage trial results published in The Lancet revealed.
India has so far given more than 100 million doses of two approved vaccines – Covishield and Covaxin.
Sputnik V’s approval came as India overtook Brazil to become the country with the second-highest number of cases globally.
India aims to vaccinate 250 million “priority people” by the end of July. But experts say that the pace of vaccination has been slow and unless the drive is scaled up, the target could be missed.
On Tue the Govt decided to give emergency approvals to vaccines already in use in other countries. It said the decision was taken to “expand the basket of vaccines for domestic use and hasten the pace and coverage of vaccination”.
It added that vaccines that have been approved by regulators in the US, the UK, European Union, and Japan would be given fast-track approvals in India.
This means that vaccines made by Pfizer and Moderna could become available for Indians.

Any other vaccine candidates?

The other candidates which are in different stages of trials in India to test safety and efficacy include: ZyCov-Di, being developed by Ahmedabad-based Zydus-Cadila
A vaccine being developed by Hyderabad-based Biological E, the first Indian private vaccine-making company, in collaboration with US-based Dynavax and Baylor College of Medicine
Hyderabad-based Biological E to produce the vaccine developed by US firm Johnson & Johnson
HGCO19, India’s first mRNA vaccine made by Pune-based Genova in collaboration with Seattle-based HDT Biotech Corporation, using bits of genetic code to cause an immune response
A nasal vaccine by Bharat BioTech
A second vaccine being developed by Serum Institute of India and American vaccine development company Novavax

What all to know about the Vaccine? A Closer Look at How COVID-19 mRNA Vaccines Work

COVID-19 mRNA vaccines give instructions for our cells to make a harmless piece of what is called the “spike protein.” The spike protein is found on the surface of the virus that causes COVID-19.

First, COVID-19 mRNA vaccines are given in the upper arm muscle. Once the instructions (mRNA) are inside the immune cells, the cells use them to make the protein piece. After the protein piece is made, the cell breaks down the instructions and gets rid of them.
Next, the cell displays the protein piece on its surface. Our immune systems recognize that the protein doesn’t belong there and begin building an immune response and making antibodies, like what happens in natural infection against COVID-19.
At the end of the process, our bodies have learned how to protect against future infection. The benefit of mRNA vaccines, like all vaccines, is those vaccinated gain this protection without ever having to risk the serious consequences of getting sick with COVID-19.

Jaishankar, Qureshi in Abu Dhabi as UAE seeks ‘functional’ ties between India, Pakistan

Its destination Abu Dhabi for External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar as well as his Pakistani counterpart Shah Mahmood Qureshi as the Gulf country said it is playing mediator between the nuclear-armed neighbors to ease tensions that have peaked over Kashmir.
While Qureshi embarked on a three-day trip to Abu Dhabi Saturday, Jaishankar will be visiting the UAE capital Sunday where he will be holding meetings with the senior leadership there. He is expected to return late Sun evening or early Mon morning.
Jaishankar has been invited to Abu Dhabi by UAE’s Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah Bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
ThePrint reported that the visit is crucial as both ministers may finally talk to each other, which might open the floodgates for more talks. This may also lead to a step towards normalizing diplomatic ties between the two nations since they had recalled their respective envoys in 2019 in the aftermath of the scrapping of Article 370.
The first step towards a potential thaw in the relationship will be appointing High Commissioners in each other’s country. Subsequently, Prime Minister Narendra Modi may also attend the SAARC Summit (pending since 2016, following tensions between two over the Uri attack), which will take place in Islamabad later this year, according to sources.
Both Jaishankar and Qureshi came to face to face at the Heart of Asia – Istanbul Process at Dushanbe, Tajikistan last month. However, they did not speak to each other.

UAE wants ‘functional and operational’ ties between India, Pak

The visit by foreign ministers of the two countries assumes significance considering the UAE’s recent statement that it is mediating between New Delhi and Islamabad for them to achieve a “functional and operational” relationship.
Earlier this week, the UAE’s envoy to Washington, Yousef Al Otaiba said the UAE did play a role “in bringing Kashmir escalation down and created a ceasefire, hopefully ultimately leading to restoring diplomats and getting the relationship back to a healthy level.”
This is ‘unprecedented’ because India has always resisted efforts of a third-party intervention when it came to settling outstanding bilateral issues between India and Pakistan.

Signs of thaw in ties

On 25 February, which marked the second anniversary of the Balakot airstrikes, the first indications of a potential thaw were seen when both sides issued a joint statement agreeing to strictly observe ceasefire along the Line of Control.

India's & Pakistan's Foreign Ministers In UAE At Same Time; Jaishankar Not Meeting Qureshi (another media reported)

Speculation about a meeting between Jaishankar & Qureshi triggered after a diplomat acknowledged the UAE’s role in facilitating secret talks between India & Pak