Newsletter 08 April

National

SINO-INDIA STANDOFF: Pangong Tso has done but China dragging its feet on disengagement at other friction points

Since last year, India and China have completed disengagement at Galwan Valley, where a clash left 20 Indian soldiers dead in June, and Pangong Tso, the latter executed earlier this year. As we reported yesterday, the that the Apr 9^th is the date proposed by the Indian Side, and was expected to confirm from the Chinese side is yet to be confirmed.

Background

The India-China standoff in Ladakh, which began in April 2020 with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) incursions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), has nearly completed a year. The Ladakh winter has receded, bringing curtains down on the first-ever instance of forwarding deployment by India and China through the region’s bitter cold season, and disengagement has been achieved at two friction points, including Pangong Tso.
However, the PLA’s continued deployment within the Indian perception of the LAC at other standoff sites — the Depsang Plains, Demchok, Gogra, and Hot Spring — continues to remain a matter of huge concern for New Delhi.
The last corps commander 16-hour talks were held on Feb 20^th and the ThePrint reported that the two sides agreed to broader parameters for further disengagement in Ladakh. The teams were supposed to meet again shortly after discussing the developments with their respective higher authorities.
While India and China agreed to pull back troops from the southern banks, many in the establishment felt that India should not give away its bargaining chip — Kailash Range — which it occupied last Aug in a late-night operation that caught the Chinese by surprise.
However, the advisory group of establishment, ‘China Studies Group’ were of opinion that more ‘cards’ will be needed to bargain on remaining disputed points, and merely capturing the heights are not enough.
Among the areas where the standoff continues, the two sides had agreed to de-escalation and disengagement from Gogra and Hot Springs in July last year but this was never implemented in full.
There are also legacy issues in Depsang Plains and Demchok, where the tensions date back to 2013, much before April 2020.

Go Deeper

Gogra or Patrolling Point (PP)-15): The Chinese intrusion in Gogra took place in May last year after the PLA violated the LAC at Pangong Tso and tensions emerged in the Galwan Valley. While the Indians used to patrol up to PP-15, the Chinese moved a platoon of soldiers 3 km inside the Indian perception of the LAC.

Simultaneously, they maintained considerable strength on their side of the LAC, providing a strong back-up to the soldiers who transgressed the LAC inside the Indian Territory. Therefore, the latter had to maintain mirror deployments from their side of LAC.
Following the disengagement agreement reached in the wake of the 15 June 2020 Galwan Valley clash, the Chinese were supposed to move back to their side of the LAC but moved limited.

Hot Springs: Just like in PP-15, the Chinese came within the Indian perception of the LAC here, blocking PP-17 and PP-17A in the larger Hot Springs area. In July, the Chinese had agreed to pull back from this area, but again did not fully implement.

In the wake of the second round of talks, the only location where the Chinese completely implemented their disengagement commitments was in Galwan Valley and that is mostly because of bitter weather conditions.

Depsang Plains: Depsang Plains, which comes under Sub-Sector North, is a key area that has witnessed Chinese strong-arm tactics and is associated with wider strategic ramifications than Gogra and Hot Springs.

The tensions at Depsang Plains can be traced to 2013 when the PLA carried out an 18-km incursion into the area, which is close to the strategic Daulat Beg Oldi base. Tensions here escalated during the 2017 Doklam standoff and as per ThePrint, the issue in Depsang Plains relates to China blocking Indian patrol parties from accessing 5 PPs — 10, 11, 11A, 12, and 13.
To reach these points, Indian patrol personnel have to walk through an area referred to as “bottleneck”, which is too narrow for vehicles.
Less than a km after the bottleneck is an area called ‘Y’ junction, which has two routes — one going to PP 10, 11, 11A, and 12, and the other directly to PP 13.
The Chinese have set up cameras in this area and block Indian patrols with the vehicles they drive in from their side. There have been claims that the Chinese have also pitched tents on the Indian side, but the Army denies it.

Demchok: The area has always seen face-offs because the perception of the LAC differs vastly on both sides. The Chinese have, in the past, objected to activities of Indian herders accessing local grasslands, claiming it was their territory. The Chinese have over the years built permanent facilities for soldiers in areas India sees as its territory.

While the Indian Diplomacy trusting on its skill, but this by no way seems to be translated into results, in the coming future.

Chief of Defense Staff, General Bipin Rawat said in a seminar organized by VIF (A New Delhi-based think tank specializing in Foreign Affairs, National Security and Strategy, and Public policy), on Wed that China is technologically ahead of us only in CyberAttack not in other domains. This is also because they had invested a lot in technology and we were slow. But we are gradually overcoming this gap and raising our integrated Cyber Defence Agency.

We have to see that the effect of Chinese CyberAttack shouldn’t be too long. Indeed, we can’t fully catch up with China in the cyber domain, and that’s why taking help from friendly western countries.

Army chief Gen Naravane on 5-day visit to Bangladesh

Chief of Army Staff General MM Naravane on Thu proceeded on a 5-day visit to Bangladesh to enhance defense cooperation and strong bilateral ties between the two nations, information shared through an official Twitter handle.

Earlier, the Indian Army delegation arrived in Dhaka on April 4 to participate in a multinational military exercise named ‘Shantir Ogroshena 2021’ (Front Runner of the Peace). The Multinational Military Exercise is being held from Apr 4-12 to mark the birth centenary of the Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and the golden jubilee of the liberation of Bangladesh. (ANI)

PM Modi, Seychelles President to jointly inaugurate projects at a virtual event today

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will on Thu participate in a high-level virtual meeting with the President of Seychelles Wavel Ramkalawan (with ancestral roots in Gopalganj, Bihar) and inaugurate a range of projects, including the New Magistrates’ Court Building in Seychelles, new naval ship, one MW solar power plant, 10 HICDPs (High Impact Community Development Projects), supported by India in Seychelles as part of New Delhi’s Indo-Pacific vision.

This will be Modi’s first interaction with Ramkalawan who came to power after a landmark victory in Oct 2020 elections in Seychelles. His party Linyon Democratic Seselwa has a two-thirds majority in the Seychelles national assembly.

He visited India in Jan 2018 as a part of the PIO Parliamentarian’s Conference and had also visited his native village ‘Parsauni’.

The Magistrates’ Court Building project is a landmark project, situated next to the Supreme Court of Seychelles built by Chinese assistance in 2013, and will help bring magistrate courts spread over different locations in Mahe into a single building.

Christened as ‘PS Zoroaster’, the FPV is the fourth ship to be gifted by India to Seychelles. The other vessels gifted by India include PS Topaz (2005), PS Constant (2014), Patrol Boat Hermes (2016).

Seychelles, an island nation, is located in the Somali Sea segment of the Indian Ocean, northeast of Madagascar has also been one of the first beneficiaries of India’s COVID-19 assistance and received over 4 tonnes of life-saving medicines including 50,000 HCQ tablets under Mission ‘SAGAR’ in May last year, while the first African country to receive 50K doses of Covishield vaccine doses from India on Jan 22 under India’s Vaccine Maitri initiative.

RED ZONE FILES: Pakistan-India backchannel move inches forward- Dwan

There is cautious optimism in Islamabad that the thaw in relations with India is holding steady despite some wrinkles in the last few days. The confidence emanates from the fact that there is more to this thaw between the two adversarial neighbors than is known publicly.

According to insiders, who are monitoring developments very closely, the haphazard outcome generated last week by the meetings of the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) and the federal cabinet injected an element of uncertainty in the ‘thawing process’ underway between Pakistan and India.

However, they said that while the process may have hit a temporary bump, it has not derailed.

One reason for this confidence is that too much time and effort has already been invested by both sides into the quiet process of backchannel engagement.

Background: As per Dwan, the engagement process started way back in 2018. Relevant people at an appropriate level of seniority in both capitals initiated contacts and began to quietly speak to each other to reduce tension and enhance prospects of calibrated normalcy, till Aug 2019, when India abrogated the special status of J&K. consequently, the process of engagement between Islamabad and New Delhi came to a sudden stop.

Supreme Court rejected the plea to stall the deportation of Rohingyas from Jammu

The Govt called the Rohingya “absolutely illegal immigrants” who posed “serious threats to national security” and also contended that the right to settle in India could not be asserted by illegal immigrants under the garb of the Constitution’s Article 21.

A bench of SC, headed by Chief Justice of India SA Bobde, on Thu rejects a plea that had sought the release of at least 150 Rohingya refugees detained in a Jammu sub-jail and the stalling of deportation, added the caution that the deportation must follow due procedure, involving proper identification and acknowledgment of their citizenship.

International

Pakistan, Russia agree to boost defense ties

Russian FM calls on PM, COAS; Lavrov, Qureshi discuss the Afghan peace process, Kashmir issue, trade potential, and IGC meeting in Moscow

What is News: Pakistan and Russia on Wed agreed to boost cooperation in diverse areas including defense and counter-terrorism, decided after the talks between the delegation-level talk headed by SM Qureshi from Pak side while Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov from their side, at the Foreign Office, Islamabad, besides, an in-depth discussion on the situation in war-torn Afghanistan, Dawn reported.

Driving the News: Washington wants to withdraw the troops from war-torn Afghanistan because it considers it as an avoidable burden and thus Moscow wants to sets its interest in the region, whereas Islamabad is a neighbor and Taliban Sympathizer and that’s why it is in the loop. Also, the financial condition of both countries is not very safe.

What They Have Said:

While speaking at a joint press conference, Lavrov said Russia was ready to build further counterterrorism potential through the provision of ‘military equipment to Pakistan. “This is in the interest of all states of the region”.
He expressed satisfaction over the 46% increase in bilateral trade but noted that there was a potential to increase and diversify it (Military equipment’s?).
Expressing concern over the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan, Lavrov said Pakistan and Russia had agreed to facilitate the parties for an agreement to put an end to civil war in Afghanistan through an inclusive political dialogue. He said: “We have provided 50K doses of anti-Covid vaccine to Pakistan and intend to provide 150K more”.
Qureshi said the two sides had agreed to hold the intergovernmental commission (IGC) meeting this year in Moscow.
He added that Russia had acknowledged Pakistan’s ‘successful campaign against terrorism and extremism, while He didn’t forget to brief Lavrov about the current situation in India-held Kashmir (only to the media!).
Pakistan appreciated Russia’s efforts in promoting the Afghan peace process, including through the hosting of the recent meeting of the extended troika in Moscow.
The Russian foreign minister also met Pakistan’s military leadership during his visit to the General Headquarters in Rawalpindi, where enhanced defense and security cooperation and regional security, particularly the Afghan peace process, came under discussion.

What to watch: How much Islamabad can invest in defense procurement while struggling with Financial Action Task Force and how Moscow will maintain its strategic relations with New Delhi?

Germany took Anti-China Move; Will Send Warship To Indian Ocean To Deepen Xi's Woes

Germany’s Defence Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer has told The Sydney Morning Herald that one of the country’s warships will patrol the Indian Ocean as part of plans to manage China’s influence in the region. The development comes at a time when India’s Foreign Secretary Harsh Shringla held talks in Berlin on Mon to boost cooperation in areas ranging from post-pandemic recovery to the Indo-Pacific, and with China being increasingly encircled.

'Key is to translate this into real muscle'

Ahead of Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla’s arrival in Berlin as part of a 3-nation tour, the Kramp-Karrenbauer told ‘The Sydney Morning Herald’ that a German frigate is set to patrol the Indian Ocean next year and the country’s naval presence in the Indo-Pacific will help safeguard the rules-based order. “We hope to be able to deploy next year,” she said.

The Indian Navy has also significantly increased its deployment in the Indian Ocean Region in an attempt to send across a message to China in the wake of escalation in tension between the two countries over the border standoff in eastern Ladakh.

Meanwhile, Shringla on Mon met German Foreign Minister of State Niels Annen and Jan Hecker, the Foreign and Security Policy Advisor to German Chancellor Angela Merkel along with top German diplomats and think tanks discussed shared priorities. He arrived in Berlin from France on the second leg of his 3-nation European tour that also includes the UK.