Newsletter 07 April

National

Sino-India Standoff: India, China to hold 11th Round of military talks is expected on April 09

The key focus will be early disengagement in other areas of Eastern Ladakh such as hot springs, Gogra, and Depsang Plains.
Both countries were able to achieve complete disengagement at Pangong lake in Feb, where India was in dominating positions.
Last week, India’s External Affairs Ministery said: “hopes that the Chinese side will work with us to ensure that disengagement in the remaining areas is completed at the earliest”, pointing out that this “would allow both sides to consider de-escalation of forces in Eastern Ladakh” as that “alone will lead to the restoration of peace and tranquillity and provide conditions for the progress of our bilateral relationship.”
Last year, there were aggressive actions from the Chinese side at the Line of actual control in eastern Ladakh, including at the Galwan in which India lost 20 soldiers. Since then, ties remain strained, even as New Delhi undertook measures to cut investment from China.
The 10^th round of India, China military talks happened in Feb, post complete disengagement at the Pangong Lake.
The same month saw telephonic talks between External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar and Chinese FM Wang Yi in which both sides decided to establish a hotline for “timely communication”.

Naravane called for better synergy among the 3 forces

With the threat of a two-front war simultaneously with China and Pakistan always looming, Army Chief General MM Naravane said on Tue that India is “facing renewed challenges” along its borders, while delivering a lecture, entitled ‘Developments along the Western and Northern Borders and their Impact on the Future Road Map of the Indian Army’ at Defence Services Staff College (DSSC), Wellington, Tamil Nadu.

Keeping this in view, military officers undergoing training should keep themselves abreast of these developments, he said.
Naravane was on a two-day visit to the college. The lecture was delivered to the faculty and officers attending the 76^th staff course at the college.
The Army Chief was briefed on the changes being undertaken in the training curriculum and infrastructural development as a step towards enhancing the role of DSSC as a center of excellence for professional military education, it noted.

‘Continue to support direct dialogue between India, Pakistan on issues of concern’ — US

Addressing the media Tue, the US State Department spokesperson, Ned Price refrained from commenting on the Pakistani Cabinet’s recent decision not to import sugar and cotton from India.

The United States on Tuesday said that it encourages India and Pakistan to have a direct dialogue between them on issues of concern.

In a volte-face, Pakistan’s Cabinet on April 1 rejected the proposal of a high-powered committee to import cotton and sugar from India, with Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi asserting that there can be no normalization of ties until New Delhi reverses its decision to revoke the special status of Jammu and Kashmir.

India indisputably a world leader in the deployment of renewable energy, says John Kerry

On his 4-day visit to India, the US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry met External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, on Tue and stated that the US will always support India on its path to a sustainable future.

Kerry said that India’s global leadership has been critical across a range of issues, including delivering COVID-19 vaccines to the world.

India and Vietnam hold maritime security dialogue

India and Vietnam on Tue deliberated on maritime security cooperation as well as on the evolving regional situation during a virtual dialogue.

The discussions took place as part of the second maritime security dialogue.

“The consultations involved exchanges on developments in the domain of maritime security, regional cooperation activities, and opportunities for cooperation between the two countries,” the Ministry of External Affairs said.

The defense and security ties between the two countries have witnessed steady expansion, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a virtual summit with his Vietnamese counterpart, Nguyen Xuan Phuc in Dec last, during which both sides vowed to boost overall defense and security cooperation, including in the maritime sphere.

In the wake of growing military muscle-flexing by China in the South China Sea region, the two leaders had specifically reaffirmed the importance of maintaining freedom of navigation and overflight in the South China Sea.

Vietnam, an important country of the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations), has territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea region

China claims sovereignty over all of the South China Sea, a huge source of hydrocarbons. However, several ASEAN member countries, including Vietnam, the Philippines, and Brunei, have counterclaims.

After Paraguay on March 22 disclosed that it had been offered Chinese vaccines in exchange for breaking ties with Taiwan, India four days later quietly sent 100,000 free vaccines to Paraguay (another gift of 100,000 is imminent). India has donated 10.5 million vaccines internationally.

Defense Minister of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Lt Gen Nurlan Yermekbayev is on an official visit to India from Apr 7-10. He is scheduled to arrive in Jodhpur today and is expected to travel to Jaisalmer, Delhi, and Agra for meetings and visit defense establishments: Defence Ministry

RBI Governor Das: Covid surge, lockdowns can hit demand, delay normalcy

Shaktikanta Das, Governor of Reserve Bank of India said on Wed fiscal authorities are ready to limit the fallout on ongoing recovery, but the focus should be on containing viruses and boosting economic revival.

Announcing the decision of the monetary policy committee to retain the policy rate at 4% and retain the accommodative stance, Das said the decision was taken keeping in mind the need to ‘nurture’ economic recovery at a time it is again facing uncertainty.

Despite these numbers, the RBI kept the growth forecast for 2021-22 at 10.5%, possibly due to a steeper than previously anticipated contraction of 8% in 2020-21.

The growth forecast for the April-June quarter is at 26.2%, as against a contraction of 24.4% in the corresponding year-ago period.

The governor said that various indicators show that economic activity is normalizing despite the latest Covid spike.

India COVID cases raise 1.15 lakh, on Tue; mask must even if driving alone, rules Delhi HC.

The overall tally reached 12.8 Million, according to Union Health Ministry data

International

Lavrov Reached Pakistan on a rare visit; to hold talks with top leadership

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reached Islamabad on Tue on a 2-day visit, after 9 years, during which he will hold important talks with the country’s top leadership and the Army chief on bilateral ties, while Afghanistan will be on the top of the agenda.
“Pakistan and Russia share a multi-faceted relationship and we welcome FM Lavrov’s visit in line with our mutual commitment to further strengthen our bilateral ties, deepening our growing bonds of cooperation & collaboration,” Pak’s Foreign Minister SM Qureshi tweeted after receiving his Russian counterpart.
During various interactions will cover the fields of security and defense, energy, counter-terrorism, Afghan peace process, economy, and trade will be discussed, the Foreign Office said.
Qureshi said both he and FM Lavrov had “agreed on the need to promote greater people-to-people contact through greater collaboration across a diversity of fields, including education”.
The two countries want to take forward the North-South Gas pipeline project, which is under discussion for quite some time, he said, adding that the Pakistan Steel Mill was set up in Karachi with the Russian help and there was an opportunity to cooperate to pull it out of the current financial crisis.
He said Lavrov was coming to Pakistan after visiting India with which Russia enjoys historical ties. “It can convince India to play a ‘positive role’ in Afghan peace,” he said.
Earlier, Qureshi met Lavrov on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Bishkek in June 2019 and the SCO Council of Foreign Ministers (CFM) meeting in Moscow in Sept 2020.
Pakistan’s ties with Russia have moved past the bitter Cold War hostilities and the chill in the US-Pakistan relations has further pushed the country towards Russia and China.
Lavrov, who arrived in New Delhi on Monday evening on a nearly 19-hour visit, has held extensive talks with the country’s top leadership with a focus on various aspects of bilateral ties and preparations for the annual India-Russia summit.

Qureshi has said on Tue that India and Pakistan cannot afford to engage in an all-out war, as both countries are powered by nuclear weapons.

He added that it is Pakistan’s firm belief that “all issues could be resolved through dialogue”, but it is India’s responsibility to create a conducive environment.

However, similar echoes were passed from New Delhi, as it up to Pak to make a conducive environment to talk free from terrorism, as talk and terror can’t go together.

Recently, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan wrote to his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi, saying that durable peace and stability in South Asia is contingent upon resolving all outstanding issues between the two countries, including the Jammu and Kashmir dispute.

President Ashraf Ghani asserts himself, proposes Afghan peace plan for Turkey talks

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has come up with a 3-part peace plan for Afghanistan to be discussed at the Turkey meet this month. He has shared his ideas with “ambassadors of various countries and representatives of international organizations in the last few days”, reports TOLO News from Kabul.

The three parts of Ghani’s plan include:

“political settlement” with the Taliban that ensures a ceasefire;
the second envisages holding elections and forming a “government of peace” with the Taliban and
“Peacebuilding, State-building, and Market building”

It is just to ensure that there is a constitutional framework, reintegration of refugees, and putting Afghanistan on the road to development.

President Ghani has shared his plan with Abdullah Abdullah, head of the High Council for National Reconciliation, also.

Background

With the new US Govt of Joe Biden settling in, Afghanistan is experiencing numerous efforts at bringing peace to the conflicted region.
With the failure, and also the dumping, of former US President Donald Trump’s Doha Peace initiative with the Taliban, Afghanistan is now dealing with multiple peace ideas and efforts.
Among these is the US proposal to involve the UN to bring Afghan stakeholders to Turkey around mid-April to hold meaningful peace talks as the US plans to move out its troops by May 2021.
At the other end are the Russian efforts to deliver peace to the strife-torn country by holding talks in Moscow with Afghan stakeholders and concerned regional parties.
Ghani’s initiative seeks to first hold talks among the Afghan groups including the Taliban and then bring in international observers to implement the ceasefire.
Ghani is as uncomfortable with Biden’s proposal to straightaway share power with the Taliban, as much as he was with Trump’s Doha Peace initiative with the Taliban.
An assertive Ghani has made it clear that this possible plan of action has to be agreed to by the Taliban first. The Afghan government says that talks in Turkey can be meaningful only if the Taliban agrees to an agenda for talks.
While the Taliban is pushing the US to withdraw the troops before May, but on the other hand, Biden too has vacillated about the withdrawal of all American troops from Afghanistan.
Meanwhile, the Afghan forces have stepped up their counteroffensive against various shades of militants killing dozens in the last four days.

Global capitalism abets China's repression-Axios

By incentivizing companies to go along with the Chinese government’s repressive policies in Xinjiang and imposing punishments on those that don’t, the Chinese Communist Party has made complicity in repression profitable for some companies — and for others, even mandatory.

The big picture: With the second-largest market in the world — one that is projected to surpass the U.S. to take the top spot by 2028 — the Chinese Communist Party has an enormous amount of power.

Since Beijing has made access to the potential riches of China’s markets contingent upon toeing party lines, companies face growing financial incentives to accede to China’s demands — unless they face counter pressure, in the form of sanctions, export bans, or other actions, from their home governments.

Driving the news: Last week, Chinese social media users lambasted Swedish clothing retailer H&M for its previous statement disavowing the use of Xinjiang cotton, amid a state-supported nationalist backlash. H&M stores were removed from Baidu maps and their products disappeared from Chinese e-commerce platforms.

Other multinational brands including Nike, New Balance, and Hugo Boss soon faced a similar boycott. Hugo Boss then posted a Chinese-language statement on Weibo saying the brand would “continue to purchase and support Xinjiang cotton” — but then deleted the post the next day.

Context: The Chinese Communist Party has put at least one million Uyghurs in mass internment camps in its northwest region of Xinjiang, banned most religious practices, used forced sterilization, and destroyed cultural heritage sites, in what some international human rights lawyers and several Govts are now calling genocide.

Hundreds of thousands of Uyghurs have reportedly been pushed into factory work and cotton production as part of the Chinese government’s forced assimilation campaign, potentially tainting global supply chains and resulting in a U.S. import ban on all cotton and tomato products from Xinjiang.
A UN human rights panel recently warned that more than 150 companies, including “well-known global brands,” were connected to “serious allegations” of forced labor and other abuses in Xinjiang.

What’s happening: Beijing is increasingly incentivizing companies to proactively contribute to its domestic repression and global geopolitical goals.

What to watch: The U.S. has banned cotton and tomato imports from Xinjiang, and the U.S. and the EU have levied sanctions on several Chinese government officials and entities deemed complicit in Xinjiang rights violations.