Newsletter 9 December

Sino-Indian Standoff

Most difficult phase with China in last 30-40 years, relationship profoundly disturbed: S Jaishankar

The minister spoke about the June 15 Galwan Valley incident and said “it is not surprising that something went horribly wrong” when soldiers are so close to each other on the border.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has put in black and white the current state of bilateral relationship with China in the wake of the raging border dispute in Ladakh.
Referring to the ongoing confrontation at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh and other areas, the minister said that “the Chinese have brought in tens of thousands of soldiers with full military preparation” to the de facto border.
“Naturally, the relationship will be profoundly disturbed,” Jaishankar said, calling out China’s provocation along the border amidst the coronavirus pandemic.
The minister spoke about the June 15 Galwan Valley incident and said “it is not surprising that something went horribly wrong” when soldiers are so close to each other on the border.
The Galwan incident has completely changed the national sentiment against China, he said, noting that the last time casualties were suffered on the border was in 1975.

More talks soon: China

On Tue, a senior Chinese official said that both countries continue to remain in close communication to further ease border tensions. Chinese FM spokesperson Hua Chunying told a media briefing that further consultations over specific issues for the next round of talks are due soon.
India and China had held the 8^th round of Corps Commander-level military talks on Nov 6 to resolve the border deadlock that had started in early May.
“The two sides will hold consultations over specific arrangements for further talks on the basis of acting on existing consensus reached through previous talks,” Hua said.
Her remarks came as nearly 50K troops from both sides continue to remain deployed in a high state of combat readiness at several mountainous locations in eastern Ladakh, even as temperatures plummet to below zero.
In a related development that highlights deterioration in ties, China has cancelled plans to jointly launch commemorative stamps with India to mark the 70^th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations.

China reinforces Tibet with military installations

China continues to make Tibet and the Indian border one of its priorities for military and infrastructure development.
Nearly 6 months since the bloody fracas in the Galwan Valley, and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) gives no indication it wishes to return to the status quo.
Even with Eastern Ladakh now truly seized by winter, the Sino-Indian standoff there continues. Despite eight rounds of military talks, there has been no breakthrough, no concessions by China, as thousands of soldiers on both sides hunker down. Yet China has been far from passive.
New construction and deployments are occurring, and the country is co-opting various “civilian” means of exerting pressure on India along the border. The Belfer Center for Scientific and International Affairs at Harvard Kennedy School in the USA estimated about 200,000 to 230,000 PLA troops were in the Western Theater Command before June’s Eastern Ladakh tensions erupted.
Frank O’Donnell and Alexander Bollfrass authored a report pointing out that China’s apparent numerical near-equivalence with Indian ground forces along the border was actually misleading.
O’Donnell and Bollfrass explained, “In sum, India has a stronger regional air position, with a large number of airfields in the east and west, so even if some airfields are down, operations can continue from other locations.“
Given this is the case, we can expect to see more air base hardening by the PLAAF in Tibet, much as it has been doing in eastern bases facing Taiwan and US bases in Asia.
The authors continued: “To address its force shortfalls in the event of war, China could surge air and ground forces from its interior toward the border.
The analysis suggests that the IAF’s superiority would mean that critical logistical routes – such as air bases and military road and rail links – could be cut by bombing or standoff missile strikes, limiting the extent to which China’s position could be reinforced.
Such a Chinese surge would also attract attention from the US, which would alert India and enable it to counter-mobilize its own additional forces from its interior.”
It is concluded, “China could permanently station forces similar to or larger than India’s nearer to the border. An Indian counter-build-up would surely follow. In total, India is in a stronger conventional position vis-a-vis China than much of the analysis on this topic concludes.”
However, these comments refer to all-out war, and such a scenario is less likely than the kind of tensions that have occurred at Galwan or Lake Pangong.
In the latter cases, the PLA needs suitable military bases, infrastructure and logistics routes in and out of Tibet.
Satellite imagery also reveals the PLA has been modernizing barracks for border defense regiments too. An example is a compound southeast of Ngari (32°28’51.97″ N 80°07’28.41″ E), while another modernized base is located at 32°25’11.68″ N 80°00’52.15″ E, about 12 km southwest of Ngari.
Both are assumed to belong to the 362^nd Border Defense Regiment.

China’s actions demonstrate that the Eastern Ladakh tensions are not isolated, but will become a common pattern of Chinese behavior

With China factor in play, Modi govt now open to Navy’s third aircraft carrier demand

Although the current focus is on submarines, there is a change in the Govt’s position regarding a 3^rd aircraft carrier for the Navy as the “situation of peace” has changed.

“The times have changed. Earlier it was time of peace and now it is not,” a top source said, in what appeared to be a reference to the current tensions between India and China in Eastern Ladakh.
The Indian Navy operates the Russian-built INS Vikramaditya and a second indigenously-built carrier is in the final stages of construction.
But even though the Navy has been firm on its plan to have a second indigenous aircraft carrier, the Govt wasn’t so convinced until now.

Farmers Protest: Day 14

Here are the 8 amendments to the farm bills Government might be ready to make

The amendments include, assurance on the Agriculture Produce Market Committee (APMC) Mandis and Free Markets will have the same tax rate.
As per the existing laws, the free market would not have taxes, the farmers had argued that the rate of taxes should be the same on both APMCs and free market.
Free market tax rate, trader registration, and no threat to farm land.
Govt also ready for MSP and procurement assurance.
Stubble burning and electricity ordinance to be taken back, cases registered during farmers protest to be quashed.

A meeting between Union Home Minister, Amit Shah and key farmers’ representatives on Tue failed to break the impasse over the new agri laws.

However, the agitating farmers’ unions agreed to hold a meeting at Singhu border on Wed to consider fresh proposals from the Centre and decide whether to renew negotiations. Thus, the meeting scheduled for today, will not takes place
After the meeting concluded, All India Kisan Sabha leader Hannan Mollah said the Centre was not ready to take back the farm laws.
While this had been conveyed even earlier by Union ministers Narendra Tomar and Piyush Goyal, the message being amplified by Shah carries a degree of finality even as he heard the farmers patiently.
Shah is understood to have offered a written assurance that the minimum support price (MSP) regime will not be scrapped while explaining that retention of the APMC system was not connected to the laws.
The Centre has also conveyed its preparedness to strengthen the mandi system.
The Bharat bandh called on Tue in support of farmers got a lukewarm response across the country, with reports of disruptions of normal life from only a few states like Telangana, Andhra and Odisha.
While there were no reports of violence in Punjab, movement of vehicles, including buses, was affected due to closure of roads at various places by farmers.
The farmer leaders said the protesters did not go to Burari ground as it is an “open jail” and demanded that Ramlila Ground be given to them. They stressed that they don’t want to trouble the people.
Punjab Kisan Union president Ruldu Singh Mansa said a 13-member delegation of farmers’ representatives will seek a “yes or no” to their demands when they meet Union Home Minister Amit Shah.
“There is no midway. We will demand just ‘yes’ or ‘no’ from Home Minister Amit Shah. In an attempt to intensify the farmers’ protest which entered its 13^th day on Wed, a few workers of Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) started providing free fuel at a petrol pump at Delh-Amritsar national highway to encourage more and more farmers to head towards Delhi.

NIA files chargesheet against extremists. 16 global Khalistani men charge-sheeted.

Role reversal: India offers US fighter jet trainer in 1st major defense sales pitc

In a reversal of roles, India has offered the US a fighter jet trainer required by its navy for pilot training on aircraft carriers, marking the first major weapons sales pitch by New Delhi to Washington.
The Indian offer is for the Undergraduate Jet Training System (UJTS) for which the US Navy has launched a global search.
ET has learnt that India responded to the official Request for Information (RFI) with a Lead in Fighter Trainer (LIFT) version of the indigenous Light Combat Aircraft.
The aircraft on offer brings in experience gained by Indian developers from the naval version of the LCA.

Nine states implement 'One Nation One Ration Card' system: Finance Minister

As many as nine states have completed One Nation One Ration Card reform following which the central Govt has allowed them to raise an additional Rs 23,523 crore, said an official release on Wed.
The states which have successfully completed the Public Distribution System (PDS) reforms are Andhra Pradesh, Goa, Gujarat, Haryana, Karnataka, Kerala, Telangana, Tripura and Uttar Pradesh. UP is the biggest beneficiary with an additional borrowing window of Rs 4851 cr followed by Karnataka Rs 4509 cr and Gujarat Rs 4352 cr.

Massive spike in cross-border firing by Pak shows its desperation to infiltrate terrorists: BSF

There has been a massive spike in cross-border firing at Jammu and Kashmir’s international border by Pakistan this year with the number of incidents almost doubling from last year, showing the neighboring country’s desperation to infiltrate terrorists, says the Border Security Force (BSF).
According to data, compiled by the BSF, to which ANI has access, this year Pakistan was involved in 314 firing incidents at the border till Oct, against 158 last year.

Mobiles Will Help India Launch World's Largest Covid Vaccine Drive: PM

Mobile technology will help the country as it launches one of the world’s largest COVID-19 vaccination drives, said the PM.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi said today that India would launch the world’s biggest Covid vaccination drive with the help of mobile technology.
He also said the country was emerging as the most preferred destination for mobile manufacturing and everyone had to work together to ensure timely rollout of 5G to leapfrog into the future.
Three leading coronavirus vaccine developers – Pfizer Inc and AstraZeneca and Bharat Biotech – have applied for emergency use authorization in India, which has the world’s second highest number of COVID cases.

Cabinet approved on Wed

Setting up of Public Wi-Fi Networks by Public Data Office (PDO). Aggregators to provide public Wi-Fi service through Public Data Offices without levy of any License Fee. PDO will establish, maintain, and operate only WANI compliant Wi-Fi Access Points and deliver broadband services to subscribers.
Aatmanirbhar Bharat Rojgar Yojana at an expenditure of ₹1,584 cr for the current financial year & ₹22,810 crore for the entire scheme period e. 2020-23.
Universal Service Obligation Fund Scheme for providing mobile coverage in Arunachal Pradesh & 2 districts of Assam. This project will provide mobile coverage to 2374 uncovered villages.

PM's entourage can't be brought into public domain: IAF challenges CIC order

Security apparatus and the entourage of the Prime Minister of India cannot be brought into the public domain for security reason, said the Indian Air Force (IAF) challenging a Central Information Commission (CIC) order in the Delhi High Court for its disclosure under the Right to Information (RTI) Act.

The plea, moved by the IAF through its Central Public Information Officer (CPIO), sought to quash an order dated July 8, 2020, passed by CIC whereby it had directed the CPIO to provide details of relevant Special Flight Returns-ll to Commodore (retd) Lokesh K Batra, who had sought the details via an RTI applicant, within 15 days.

NEIGHBORHOOD/ WORLD

Pakistan’s love for military now has Chinese money and will soon have legislative power

US needs to reconsider. An army that drives its posh SUVs oiled by Chinese money is bad news, whether in Mandarin, Punjabi or English.
In new legislation has recently been passed in the Pak National Assembly, which proposes “to create a China Pakistan Economic Corridor Authority” that would essentially take control of the billion dollar CPEC away from the civilian bureaucracy to the Pak Army.
But not in Pakistan, where the creation of an army-run supranational authority is in line with other actions, which have put the country so close to army rule that it’s becoming increasingly difficult to tell the difference.
Policy makers in India and elsewhere, long used to the Pakistani ‘military establishment’, would normally shrug their shoulders and hope for the best. But there’s a difference this time round.
All of this is being powered by Chinese money. Which means that Beijing has just bought itself an army, with a State attached.
The Imran Khan government has outstripped all others in filling civilian posts with military officers.
Not content with this, legislation has been introduced in Parliament that further erodes political power.
This includes the legislation to take the Pakistan Maritime Security Agency (PMSA), which operates directly opposite Indian waters, out of the control of the PM’s Office, apparently because the Govt doesn’t want this high office to be involved in ‘trivial’ matters.
Then there are new laws to control social media, which gives the State unfettered power to decide what construes ‘extremism’ or what may be considered ‘objectionable’.