Newsletter 15 October

Sino-Indian Standoff: Govt of India to carry out Review of Military talks

India-China military talks deadlocked, winter deployment seems certain-Ajai Shukla, Indian Analyst

Xi tells troops to 'put minds and energy on preparing for war'

At a time when the 7^th round of India and China military talks to resolve the border disputes in Eastern Ladakh have ended in a deadlock, Chinese President Xi Jinping has told his soldiers.
Xi made these remarks while visiting a Marine Corps base in the Guangdong province, where he made an important speech, Xinhua reported.
In his speech, Xinhua reported, “Xi Jinping pointed out that we must put all our minds and energy on preparing for war and maintain a state of high alert.”
According to Xinhua, Xi emphasized that it is necessary to uphold the party’s absolute leadership over the military, strengthen the party’s innovative theoretical arms, and pay close attention to comprehensively and strictly govern the party and the military.
“And ensure that the troops are absolutely loyal, absolutely pure, and absolutely reliable,” Xi told the troops.Xi also called for carrying on the “red gene” and creating a spirit “that is not afraid of hardship and death”.

Govt of India to carry out review of military talks with China on border standoff

The China Study Group (CSG) is expected to carry out a comprehensive review of the military talks between India and China on the over five-month-long border standoff in eastern Ladakh, Govt sources said on Wed, as a breakthrough for speedy disengagement of troops remained elusive.
India and China have held 7 rounds of military talks at the Corps commander level with the latest meeting on Mon lasting nearly 12 hours.
India has all along been maintaining that the onus is on China to carry forward the process of disengagement and de-escalation at the friction points in the mountainous region.
It is also learnt that the Chinese delegation put forth a proposal at the Monday talks to kick-start the disengagement process.

While some media reported as “the 7th round of talks ends without any agreement

On Tue evening, New Delhi and Beijing signed off on a joint press release to describe the previous day’s talks between senior military commanders of the two sides, in which there was no agreement to disengage or de-escalate.

Situation as of now:

India’s core demand remains a troop pull-back by China to positions both sides held in April, before the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) trespassed across the LAC into the Galwan, Hot Springs, Pangong Tso and Depsang sectors.
China’s position, on the other hand, remains that it will only discuss a pull back after the Indian Army vacates the tactically dominating positions it occupied south of Pangong Tso at the end of Aug, after readjustment.
Suggesting a hardening of stance, Tue’s media release is silent on concrete steps to mitigate the confrontation, like Sept 21^st statement, adopted a standard Chinese formulation: “Both sides agreed to earnestly implement the important understandings reached by the leaders of the two countries, not to turn differences into disputes, and jointly safeguard peace and tranquility in the border areas.”

China analysts do not see any “give” in Beijing’s position. Yun Sun of the Washington DC-based Stimson Centre believes New Delhi is missing some fundamental aspects of the strategic personality of Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Sun believes Beijing is reconciled to having India as a strategic adversary. “Many Chinese feel that they never ‘had’ India to begin with. The mutual distrust and embedded hostility in the society and in the policymaking circles has led to an understanding that India was never China’s friend or partner. This forms an interesting contrast to the Indian perception that China betrayed India,” she says.

As winter takes hold in Eastern Ladakh, the failure of disengagement talks means the new frontlines are being frozen, figuratively as well as literally.

Ladakh: Chinese PLA casualty evacuation spotted in North Bank area of Pangong Tso

The weather in the area, which is considerably below the freezing point in the nights, is speculated to be the reason for increasing PLA casualties in Ladakh.
Cases of casualty evacuation have been spotted in the area over the last week.
Around 5,000 Chinese soldiers are occupying the peaks at an altitude of 15,000-16,000 feet.
Notably, Beijing had recently said that it does not recognize Union Territory (UT) status granted by New Delhi to Ladakh 3 days after US Secy of State Mike Pompeo revealed that China has deployed 60,000 soldiers along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) against India.

US poll results, economic recovery could shape LAC row

The US elections could be a factor in China’s decision on sustaining tensions with India and others.
Many analysts have predicted moderation of US approaches to China by a potential Joe Biden administration, while a returned Trump may continue his hard-liner.
The truth is probably that the US is unlikely to ever engage China, given the growing unease in Washington about Beijing. First blasting for construction of Zojila Tunnel which will provide all-weather connectivity between Srinagar, Dras, Kargil and Leh regions in India.

Veterans write to Prez, seek action against‘ Muslim Regiment’ fake news

A large number of military veterans have written to President Ram Nath Kovind requesting stern action against those spreading “fake news” on social media about a non-existent “Muslim Regiment” of the Indian Army refusing to fight in the 1965 war against Pakistan. The disinformation campaign was possibly part of “psy ops” unleashed by Pakistan, said Lt-General S A Hasnain (retd).

Pakistan sets 5 preconditions for resumption of talks with India

Kashmiris remain the rightful principal party in the dispute, says SAPM Moeed Yusuf
In an interview to journalist Karan Thapar, Special Assistant to Prime Minister (SAPM) on National Security Dr Moeed Yousaf said that Pakistan desired peaceful ties with India and wanted to resolve all issues through dialogue.
Yousaf asserted that for any meaningful dialogue to take place between the two neighbor’s, India has to release all political prisoners in Kashmir, end inhuman blockade and restrictions, rescind domicile law that allows non-Kashmiris to settle in the disputed territory, stop human rights abuses and end state terrorism in Pakistan.

India lampoons Pakistan at Commonwealth Foreign Ministers' meet for raising Kashmir issue

India on Wed lampooned Pakistan at a virtual meeting of the Commonwealth foreign ministers, calling it a promoter of state sponsored terrorism “masquerading” as an alleged victim of the menace.
Without directly naming Pakistan, India also referred to the neighboring country’s dubious distinction of becoming synonymous with the phrase “epicenter of terrorism” and hosting the largest number of terrorists proscribed by the United Nations.
The sharp reaction by Secretary (West) in Ministry of External Affairs Vikas Swarup, who was representing EAM S Jaishankar came in the meeting after Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi alleged that a state in South Asia is fanning hyper nationalism to “engineer” illegal demographic change in a disputed territory, in a reference to Kashmir.
“When we heard them rant about a south Asian state, we were left wondering why it was describing itself. And not surprisingly it came from a globally acknowledged promoter of state sponsored terrorism masquerading as an alleged victim of the same,” Swarup said.

“I always go for chana masala and naan, while chai always takes me back to my travels in India, and memories of a vibrant, diverse & colorful country,” Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen tweeted.

Foreign Minister of Taiwan Flag of Taiwan Dr. Joseph Wu joins India Today, Taiwan takes on China, pushes for better and stronger India-Taiwan ties, backs the Quad initiative and seeks Supply Chain Resilience to counter China.

Against the backdrop of the India-China border standoff, experts and commentators have called for New Delhi to review its relations with Taipei, which has been dealing with the Chinese military’s actions in recent months.

Meeting is going on “Gupkar Declaration” on Oct 15th

The meeting is going on, of National Conference president Farooq Abdullah and his son, party vice-president Omar Abdullah, called on PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti. On wed they went the residence of Mufti and invited her to a meeting of the signatories to the Gupkar Declaration at Dr Abdullah’s residence on Thu. Mufti “has kindly accepted Farooq Sb’s invitation” for Thu afternoon, Omar Abdullah, ex-CM, tweeted.

Karnataka extends hiring freeze in all govt Dept till 2021

The Karnataka government has decided to extend freeze on recruitments in all government departments until early 2021 as it is yet to recover the losses wrought by Covid-induced lockdown. After the lockdown took effect in the third week of March, the Karnataka finance department directed all departments in July to suspend recruitment processes, also funds for new projects.

NIA suspects D-Company link to Kerala gold smuggling case

The National Investigation Agency (NIA) probing the terror link in the Kerala gold smuggling case on Wed indicated in a special court here that it suspected the link of underworld don Dawood Ibrahim’s gang in the sensational racket.
There was intelligence inputs regarding probable use of proceeds from the gold smuggling for the anti-national and terrorism activities, it said, adding the detention of all accused in judicial custody up to 180 days was absolutely necessary to carry forward the investigation in the case.
In an additional counter submitted at the Special NIA Court, the central agency strongly opposed the bail applications of all the accused arrested in connection.
The NIA said Ramees, 5^th accused in the case, during custodial interrogation, has revealed that he had attempted to start a diamond business in Tanzania and that later he had attempted to obtain a gold mining license in Tanzania.

NEIGHBORHOOD/ WORLD

Nepal PM Oli sends a quiet message to India with a change in his cabinet

Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli has moved out Ishwar Pokhrel from the defense ministry ahead of Indian Army Chief General MM Naravane’s Nepal visit on Nov 3^rd
Nepal watchers say Pokhrel had recently also opposed General Naravane’s Nov 3 visit to the Himalayan country and wanted India to first sit across the table to discuss the boundary dispute between the two countries.

Nepal now setting up border outposts near China border

Days after it was alleged that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) had constructed at least nine buildings on the Nepal side of the Nepal-China border in Humla district in Karnali province, sources confirmed that Nepal has set up six border observation posts (BOPs) along its border with China. Sources added that at least 9 more BOPs are also proposed to be set up.

Army Chief To Visit Nepal Next Month Amid Row Over Map

During his visit in 1^st week of next month, (date yet to be finalized) Army chief General MM Naravane is scheduled to hold extensive talks with the top military brass of Nepal including his Nepalese counterpart Gen Purna Chandra Thapa and Def Min (?).
Officials said General Naravane will be conferred the honorary rank of ”General of the Nepal Army” by Nepalese President Bidya Devi Bhandari during his visit, in continuation of an age-old tradition that first started in 1950, reflecting the strong ties between the two militaries.
India also confers the honorary rank of ”General of Indian Army” to the Nepal Army Chief.
The ties between the two countries came under strain after Def Minr Rajnath Singh inaugurated an 80-km-long strategically crucial road connecting the Lipulekh pass with Dharchula in Uttarakhand on May 8.
In the midst of the row, General MM Naravane said that there were reasons to believe that Nepal objected to the road at the behest of “someone else”, in an apparent reference to a possible role by China in the matter. The comments triggered angry reactions from Nepal.
India too had published a new map in November 2019 showing the areas as its territories. After Nepal released the map, India reacted sharply, calling it a “unilateral act” and cautioning Kathmandu that such “artificial enlargement” of territorial claims will not be acceptable to it.

Time for transformation amid export slump-

(GT-Chinese State Media) the most important move, Beijing could play
China’s rare earth still needs an edge up in technology for high-end products
China is the world’s biggest supplier of rare-earth elements, the crucial component in an array of high tech and military applications.
China’s mines account for about 70% of global output and are the most important sources of rare-earth elements for many countries.
According to US government statistics, from 2014 to 2017, the US sourced 80% of its rare-earth imports from China.
The Bayan Obo Mining District in North China’s Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region is often regarded as the biggest rare-earth mine in the world, with 17 different rare-earth elements.
Although Bayan Obo mine was designed as an iron mine back in the 1960s, in 2016, the Inner Mongolia BaoTou Steel Union, the group that currently oversees the Bayan Obo mine finally shifted its strategy and began to develop its rare-earth sectors.
According to the Xinhua News Agency, the revenue from its rare-earth sector has reached 18 billion yuan ($2.66 billion) in 2019.

2 Afghan helicopters crash amid Helmand fighting, 9 dead

2 Afghan army helicopters collided while transporting wounded soldiers amid renewed fighting against Taliban militants in the southern Helmand province, killing nine Afghan service members, the country’s Defense Ministry and local officials said Wed.
The two Soviet-era Mi-17 helicopters crashed due to technical problems while taking off in Nawa district late Tue, the Afghan Defense Ministry statement said.
The crash came amid a new wave of fighting in Helmand province between the Afghan military and Taliban insurgents. The Taliban control roughly 80% of Helmand, and in the past year have waged several attacks on the capital of Lashkar Gah only to be repulsed by Afghan security forces, whose control is largely restricted to district centers.

US destroyer crosses Taiwan Strait, risking Chinese anger

A US battleship crossed the Taiwan Strait on Wednesday, the US Navy said, risking angering China, which claims sovereignty over the maritime thoroughfare. The guided-missile destroyer USS Barry conducted a “routine Taiwan Strait transit Oct 14 (local time) in accordance with international law,” 7^th Fleet spokeswoman Reann Mommsen said in a statement.