1. Red flags in Delhi as a 4-member ISI team from Pak makes a quiet visit to Dhaka
2. U.S. sanctions hit Russian oil supply to India; BPCL says supplies may be impacted
3. Subianto as Republic Day chief guest: Strengthening India-Indonesia ties
4. After Jaishankar & Doval, foreign secy Vikram Misri to travel to China for talks
5. Centre okays Mazagon Dock & German maker Thyssenkrupp’s bid for multi-billion dollar submarine deal

What Else

1. ‘Iron Age began on Tamil soil 5,300 yrs ago,’ Stalin declares citing artifacts tested in labs abroad
2. Trump begins presidency with America First Trade Policy, may hit Canada, Mexico with 25% tariff on 1 Feb
3. Bomb Threat email to Mumbai School, Mentions ‘Afzal Gang’, Premises Searched
4. ‘We didn’t stop trading…’: EAM Jaishankar on trade with Pakistan
5. HRCP report highlights rising migration of Hindus from Sindh amid violence, discrimination
6. US lawmakers bring back bill to revoke China’s trade status

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Red flags in Delhi as a 4-member ISI team from Pak makes a quiet visit to Dhaka

• A delegation from Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency, including Major General Shahid Amir Afsar, arrived in Bangladesh on Jan 21 for a four-day visit.
• This visit marks a significant upgrade in military-to-military engagements between Dhaka and Islamabad, which may not sit well with New Delhi.
• The ISI team’s visit comes on the heels of a six-member Bangladeshi military delegation’s trip to Pakistan, where they met with top military leadership, including Army Chief Genl Asim Munir.
• The two sides discussed enhancing military cooperation and promoting peace and stability in South Asia.
• Notably, this is the first publicly acknowledged visit by a senior ISI official to Dhaka since 2009, when Pakistan’s spy agency helped Bangladesh deal with a revolt in the Bangladesh Rifles.
• The development is likely to raise eyebrows in New Delhi, given the ISI’s history of using Bangladeshi soil to support militant groups in India’s northeastern states. (more)
• The ISI delegation arrived in Dhaka on Jan 21 via Dubai and was received by a senior DGFI.
• The team will interact with interlocutors and visit military establishments.
• The visit is part of a ‘thaw in Bangladesh-Pakistan relations’.
• India is likely to be concerned due to historical tensions.

U.S. sanctions hit Russian oil supply to India; BPCL says supplies may be impacted

• Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd has warned that US sanctions on Russia may disrupt oil supplies from Russia to India.
• The sanctions, imposed on Russian entities including state-owned oil company Rosneft, may affect oil supplies to India, causing difficulties in arranging shipping and insurance for Russian oil cargoes.
• BPCL, India’s second-largest oil refiner, is concerned about potential disruptions to Russian oil supplies and is exploring alternative sources to mitigate the impact.
• Russia has become a significant oil supplier to India, with imports increasing substantially in recent years.
• Any disruptions to these supplies could impact India’s energy security and fuel prices, and may also affect global oil prices, as India is a significant oil importer. (more)

Subianto as Republic Day chief guest: Strengthening India-Indonesia ties

• Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto will be the chief guest at India’s Republic Day celebrations this year.
• This invitation underscores the growing partnership between India and Indonesia, with plans for high-level meetings, defense cooperation, and possibly even the participation of the Indonesian military in the Republic Day parade.
• Subianto’s visit is expected to strengthen ties between the two nations, with discussions on various areas of cooperation, including defense, trade, and economy.
• India is also keen to finalize multiple defense deals, including the sale of Light Combat Aircraft, Akash surface-to-air missile Systems, and BrahMos Supersonic Cruise Missiles.
• India’s selection of Subianto as the chief guest is seen as a strategic move to boost its ties with ASEAN, particularly Indonesia, the largest economy in the region.
• This move is also expected to enhance India’s Act East policy, which aims to strengthen its economic and strategic ties with Southeast Asia.
• It’s worth noting that Indonesia and India have a long history of diplomatic relations, with Indonesia’s first President, Sukarno, being the first chief guest at India’s Republic Day in 1950.
• Since then, several Indonesian presidents have attended the R-Day celebrations, including President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in 2011 and President Joko Widodo in 2018. (more)

After Jaishankar & Doval, foreign secy Vikram Misri to travel to China for talks

• Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri’s upcoming visit to Beijing on Jan 26-27, 2025, marks a significant development in India-China relations.
• This is part of the Foreign Secretary-Vice Minister mechanism, which aims to discuss the next steps for bilateral relations in political, economic, and people-to-people domains.
• Misri’s visit is the 3^rd high-level interaction between India and China in recent months, following the disengagement agreement at friction points on the border in Oct 2024.
• This agreement paved the way for a bilateral meeting between PM Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia.
• The meetings between Indian and Chinese officials, including External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, as well as National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and Wang, indicate a renewed effort to normalize ties after a 4-year chill following the Galwan clashes in 2020.
• Key issues discussed during these meetings include the resumption of the Kailash-Mansarovar Yatra, which has been suspended since 2020 due to the pandemic, and China’s push for the resumption of direct flights and increased visa issuance for Chinese nationals.
• Though, India has emphasized a “step-by-step” approach to restoring bilateral ties (more)

Centre okays Mazagon Dock & German maker Thyssenkrupp’s bid for multi-billion dollar submarine deal

• Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited (MDL) and Germany’s Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) have secured a massive deal to build six conventional submarines for the Indian Navy, featuring cutting-edge stealth capabilities.
• The contract, valued at over ₹70,000 crore, surpasses the initial benchmark of ₹43,000 crore set by the defense ministry.
• Key Details: Partnership: MDL and TKMS will collaborate to design and build the submarines, with TKMS creating a new design tailored to Indian requirements.
• Delivery Timeline: The first submarine is expected to be delivered within 7 years of signing the contract, which could be as early as 2032.
• Technical Requirements: The submarines will feature air-independent propulsion (AIP), allowing them to operate underwater for extended periods (at least 2 weeks).
• Project 75 India (P75I): This project is part of a 30-year submarine-building plan, aiming to build 18 conventional submarines and 6 nuclear-powered submarines.
• Proven AIP System: TKMS had a proven AIP system fitted in over 60 Type 214 submarines, which, although smaller, could be scaled up to meet Indian Navy requirements.
• Technical Evaluation: The Indian Navy’s field evaluation trial (FET) report confirmed that TKMS met technical requirements, while L&T-Navantia’s bid did not.
• Enhanced Capabilities: The new submarines will provide the Indian Navy with advanced stealth features and extended underwater operation capabilities.
• Deterrent Against China and Pakistan: The P75I project aims to build a formidable submarine fleet to counter regional threats. (more)

‘Iron Age began on Tamil soil 5,300 yrs ago,’ Stalin declares citing artifacts tested in labs abroad

• Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin has announced that the Iron Age began in Tamil Nadu around 5,300 years ago, citing findings from the state’s archaeology department.
• The report, “Antiquity of Iron: Recent radiometric dates from Tamil Nadu,” reveals that iron smelting technology originated in Tamil Nadu, with the earliest recorded use of iron dating back to 3345 BCE.
• This discovery pushes back the known timeline of iron use in India and suggests that the Iron Age in Tamil Nadu was contemporaneous with the Copper/Bronze Age of the Indus Valley Civilization.
• Stalin emphasized that this finding is a matter of great pride for Tamil Nadu and marks a significant milestone in the state’s history. (more)
• [Why this is news: This “highlights the advanced civilization and technological capabilities” of “ancient Tamil Nadu”. Western powers are involved in exploiting this fault line, possibly for strategic gain.]

Trump begins presidency with America First Trade Policy, may hit Canada, Mexico with 25% tariff on 1 Feb

• Donald Trump has begun his presidency with an “America First” trade policy, which may include imposing a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico as early as Feb 1.
• This move is part of Trump’s efforts to address trade deficits and promote American economic interests.
• The proposed tariffs have sparked concerns about potential trade wars and economic repercussions.
• Trump has also hinted at imposing additional tariffs on China, citing the country’s role in funneling fentanyl to the United States.
• Investigating trade deficits: Trump has directed federal agencies to investigate the source of annual trade deficits and recommend actions to address them ¹.
• Imposing tariffs: Trump has proposed imposing tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, citing unfair trade practices and national security concerns ¹.
• Reviewing trade agreements: Trump has ordered a review of existing trade agreements, including the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, to determine whether they are beneficial to American interests.
• These moves have significant implications for global trade and economic relations, and it remains to be seen how they will play out in the coming months. (more)

Bomb Threat email to Mumbai School, Mentions ‘Afzal Gang’, Premises Searched

• A school in Mumbai received a bomb threat email allegedly from the Afzal Gang, prompting the police to conduct a thorough search of the premises.
• Threat email: The school received an email threatening to blow up the school building.
• Afzal Gang claim: The email claimed to be from the Afzal Gang, a name that has been associated with previous threat emails and messages.
• Police investigation: The Mumbai Police launched an investigation and searched the school premises.
• No explosives found: No explosives or suspicious items were found during the search.
• Increased security: The police have increased security measures around the school as a precautionary measure.
• The Mumbai Police are taking the threat seriously and are investigating the source of the email. (more)

‘We didn’t stop trading…’: EAM Jaishankar on trade with Pakistan

• Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar clarified that it was Pakistan, not India, that chose to suspend trade in 2019.
• He reiterated India’s concern over the lack of reciprocal Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status from Pakistan.
• Jaishankar also highlighted the absence of recent trade discussions between the two nations.
• Regarding India-US relations, Jaishankar emphasized the strong trust and convergence of interests between the two countries.
• He noted their shared sense of global responsibility and the need for a bolder, more ambitious bilateral partnership. (more)

[Neighborhood]

HRCP report highlights rising migration of Hindus from Sindh amid violence, discrimination

• A recent report by the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan has shed light on the alarming trend of Hindu families migrating from Sindh due to ongoing violence, economic hardships, and climate change.
• The report, titled “Exodus: Is the Hindu Community Leaving Sindh?” highlights the state’s failure to protect this vulnerable minority.
• The report reveals that Hindu families are facing increasing threats of violence, extortion, and discrimination, forcing them to migrate overseas, including to India.
• Systemic economic struggles are also driving Hindus out of Sindh, while climate change is another factor contributing to their migration.
• The HRCP has recommended enhanced law enforcement, greater representation in police forces, and consistent dialogue with local Hindu communities to create a safer environment.
• Additionally, the report calls for the collection of credible data on migration, the deployment of specialized law enforcement units, and stronger legislation against forced conversions and child marriages. (more)

US lawmakers bring back bill to revoke China’s trade status

• US lawmakers have reintroduced a bill to revoke China’s Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status, citing the country’s unfair trade practices and national security concerns. The proposed legislation, called the Restoring Trade Fairness Act, aims to level the playing field for American workers and businesses ¹.
• The bill’s sponsors argue that China’s PNTR status, granted in 2000, has failed to deliver on its promise of fair trade practices and has instead led to significant job losses and economic harm to the US. They point to China’s state-run economy, intellectual property theft, and forced labor practices as evidence of its unfair trade practices ¹ ².
• Key provisions of the bill include:
• Revoking PNTR Status: Ending China’s preferential tariff treatment under US law.
• Tariff Increases: Imposing a minimum 35% tariff on non-strategic goods and a 100% tariff on strategic goods.
• Phase-in Period: Gradually implementing the new tariff rates over five years.
• Support for US Businesses: Providing tariff revenue to support US farmers and manufacturers affected by potential Chinese retaliation ¹ ³.
• The bill has bipartisan support, with lawmakers from both parties recognizing the need to reset the US-China trade relationship. (more)