Important Picks of the Day :

[ NATIONAL ]

As trust deficit lingers, India & China prepare for another harsh winter deployment in Ladakh (↓)

Forward deployment to continue even though India & China are expected to make forward movement in Hot Springs, the last unresolved face-off site, during the next corps commander talks.

Eye on China, India looks to step up engagement with the Indian Ocean (↓)

In a first, India has just held a special training course for 6 Indian Ocean Region countries, of 35 diplomats, 4 of them from the strategically important western Indian Ocean where India has been playing catch-up with China.

The UK wants trade, security pact with India, says Foreign Secretary Liz Truss (↓)

To challenge the influence of authoritarian states, the UK wants to get into agreements, covering trade and security with India and other democratic nations in the Indo-Pacific region. The remark was made by Britain’s new Foreign Secretary Liz Truss on Sun. The leader is keen to strike more deals in line with AUKUS.

Classified parts of the US-Taliban Doha deal have India worried

India is coming to terms with the fact that notwithstanding Pakistan’s role in supporting the Taliban and ensuring a strategic failure of the US in Afghanistan, Washington could be re-engaging with Islamabad — perhaps shorn of illusions — once again, after a gap.

₹45L and job for victim’s kin, judicial probe: Lakhimpur Kheri stalemate ends 

Talks between the administration and protesting farmers, led by Bharatiya Kisan Union leader Rakesh Tikait, ended on a “positive note” on Mon as agitations continued to spread across parts of north India over the deaths of at least 8 persons, including four ryots, in a violent clash that erupted at Lakhimpur Kheri in Uttar Pradesh on Sun.

Mufti claims govt uses Section 144 to stifle dissent over violation of rights

Former J&K CM Mehbooba Mufti on Mon said the imposition of Code of Criminal Procedure’s Section 144, which prohibits the gathering of over 4 people, wherever “human rights and dignity is trampled” has emerged as the govt’s preferred approach. “This govt shows no hesitation in using an iron fist with its people but welcomes Chinese troops with open arms,” she tweeted.

[ NEIGHBORHOOD ]

China curbs political control of internet giants in a bid to cut its reliance on West

The ruling CCP is tightening political control over China’s internet giants and tapping their wealth to pay for its ambitions to reduce reliance on the US and European technology. Anti-monopoly and data security crackdowns starting in late 2020 have shaken the industry, which flourished for two decades with little regulation.

For the second straight day, Chinese jets fly towards Taiwan in another incursion, US writing letters (↓)

China flew 39 military planes towards Taiwan on Sat. It was the 2^nd large display of force in as many days.

EU: Afghanistan facing socio-economic collapse

The 27-country EU has increased its humanitarian aid to Afghanistan since the Taliban took power, but halted its development assistance.

Explosion occurs near Kabul, 12 casualties reported (↓)

An explosion occurred near the gate of Eid Gah Mosque in Kabul on Sunday afternoon, said Zabihullah Mujahid, the deputy minister for culture and information ministry. However, Sputnik news, quoting sources, claimed at least 12 civilians were killed. Taliban has said on Monday, that Islamic State cell destroyed after mosque attack.

Shura Mujahideen, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan declare 20-day truce in Pakistan’s North, South Waziristan  (↓)

Two terror groups have declared a truce with the government in Pakistan. Shura Mujahideen of North Waziristan and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan fighters in S Waziristan have announced the 20-day ceasefire. The decision comes as negotiations are being held between govt intermediaries and terrorists.

‘Pandora Papers’: Key members of Pakistan PM’s inner circle among over 700 Pakistanis named in leaks (↓)

The Pandora papers obtained by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists show that over 130 billionaires and celebrities from Russia, the US, India, Pakistan, UK, and Mexico used shell companies and incognito bank accounts to buy secret assets and conduct secret financial transactions.

Sooner or later the US will have to recognize the Taliban govt, says PM Imran

PM has said “sooner or later” the US will have to recognize the Taliban govt in Afghanistan. He said hearings of the US Senate Committee implied that Americans were “completely surprised” by the Taliban coming back to power.

As trust deficit lingers, India and China prepare for another harsh winter deployment in Ladakh

India and China are looking to continue troop deployment in the forward areas of Ladakh for a second consecutive winter, despite both sides are expected to make forward movement in the Hot Springs area, the last unresolved face-off site, during the next corps commander-level talks, expected this month, ThePrint reported citing sources.

ThePrint – the continued deployment is a fallout of a “trust deficit” as tensions continue to fester for nearly 18 months.

• While the two sides have withdrawn from face-off sites on the northern and southern banks of Pangong Tso, besides those at Gogra and Galwan Valley, they continue to maintain extra troops as part of a multi-tier deployment, couldn’t be affected even after understanding at Pangong Tso.
• The winter in Ladakh is famously bitter, with temperatures in the forward areas dropping to -30°C during its peak, which is even at present is 0^oC.
• As in 2020, the Chinese, who traditionally return to their barracks after their patrols, have been forced to stay in forwarding areas during the winter. This, Indian officers say, is a development that the Chinese didn’t factor in.
• When China first sought to flex its muscles by violating the LAC, it didn’t predict such a long stand-off would ensue, they add.
• Army chief Gen M.M. Naravane told news agency ANI in an interview last week that the 13^th round of corps commander-level talks is likely to be held soon, possibly in the 2^nd week of Oct, after the 12^th round, which was held on 31 July.
• He also expressed concern over enhanced Chinese deployment “in considerable numbers across eastern Ladakh and up to Eastern Command. We are also carrying out matching developments.”

China feels the heat of winter

• The current Western Theater Commander is 3^rd one since the Standoff began.
• The Chinese have built/continue to build dozens of large weather-proof structures along the LAC in eastern Ladakh for their troops to stay in during the winter.
• While withdrawal did happen from some of the friction points, the troops have not gone back to their traditional holding positions and continue to remain close to the LAC, the sources said.
• Other Chinese construction — new helipads, widening of airstrips, new barracks, new surface-to-air missile sites, and radar locations — has been continuing as well.
• China has carried out massive construction around the LAC amid the stand-off, including building new bridges and roads beside housing, to boost its military capability in eastern Ladakh.
• PLA is increasing the military buildup and has deployed 2 Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile batteries along the LAC with India. India is also slated to begin getting deliveries of five S-400 squadrons by this year-end.

India’s counter-deployment

• On its part, India has completed its enhanced winter stockings for eastern Ladakh, sources said, adding that more infrastructure has been created over the last few months.
• India deployed additional troops, besides being maintained in the area,
• India has also inducted a full regiment of the 155 mm Vajra K9 self-propelled tracked howitzers — with a range of 40-50 km — and one regiment of the 155 mm ultra-lightweight howitzers procured from the US, ThePrint reported citing sources.
• While the Vajras were ordered for the desert and plains, three of them were brought to Ladakh earlier this year for trials.
• The Army was satisfied with the trials and is considering ordering at least two more regiments for the mountains.
• ThePrint reported citing sources two additional Brigades, including one from a re-balanced Strike Corps, have undertaken rotation.
• New elements have been brought in for the winter, while some existing troops have been pulled back to ensure optimal force deployment during the season.
• While 2020 saw an increased and rapid induction of troops in direct response to the Chinese aggression, as “mirror deployment”, this time all steps have been taken given the long-term posture needed.
• The Army has also utilized the last year for enhanced deployment of new surveillance equipment bought under emergency procurement, ThePrint reported citing sources.
• It is a mix of humans and technology that is being increasingly used for surveillance of the border areas and Chinese movement, the sources added.
• Ahead of the 2021 summer, the Army carried out a series of deployment changes and even rewrote the Order of Battle (ORBAT) to tackle the Chinese threat.

Small transgressions happen on the India-China border, we give an appropriate response: ITBP DG

Asked over some media reports regarding the transgression of over 100 Chinese troops in Indian territory on Aug 30^th, but news came in media ITBP DG Sanjay Arora said: “ITBP is a border guarding force. Our mandate is to maintain the integrity of the border. At the border, incidents of small transgression happen periodically and we keep giving them appropriate responses.” (For detail see last weekend’s newsletter.)

• The cycle rally started on Aug 27^th from an altitude of 4,500 m in Ladakh and crossed harsh climatic and terrain conditions, before reaching Manali via Atal Tunnel.
• The rally crossed some of the very high motorable passes such as Marsimik-La (5,582m), Changla (5,319m), Tanglang-La (5,328m), Baralacha-La (4,892m), Lachung-La (5,059m).

Eye on China, India looks to step up engagement with Indian Ocean-(ET)

In a first, India has just held a special training course for 6 Indian Ocean Region countries, of 35 diplomates, 4 of them from the strategically important western Indian Ocean where India has been playing catch-up with China.

The course entailed modules on foreign policy, contemporary maritime issues, humanitarian assistance, disaster relief, international framework under UNCLOS, multilateral and economic diplomacy, diplomatic protocol, health diplomacy, and climate change challenges.

Comoros, and Madagascar is largest in the western Indian Ocean, a region (IOR), where bureaucratic red-tapism has threatened to undermine the Indian outreach, sent 12 and 10 diplomats respectively for the program, which is significant to India.

• Govt says the course will further promote mutual understanding and cooperation between IOR countries and help build awareness about this region as one based on “peace, progress, and prosperity” for all.
• While, China has already consolidated its naval presence in the region with the appointment of a defense attache in Madagascar earlier this year, but even after approval though India had approved the proposals, yet to be executed:

• A military attache in Madagascar
• An English teacher.
• A liaison officer at the Regional Maritime Information Fusion Centre in Madagascar

Beijing, on the other hand, launched a Chinese language course in the Madagascar defense ministry last month to facilitate a more efficient “exchange of ideas and experiences”’ between the 2 militaries.

• According to Global Times, the Madagascar defense minister, Richard Rakotonirina, addressed the conference in Chinese, saying the course will help the 2 sides understand each other and deepen ties.
• Even before the launch of this new course, Beijing had been training Madagascar officials in China in French, one of the 2 official languages on the island.
• For India, it’s important to have a defense attache to be able to build upon Madagascar’s stated desire to deepen defense ties with the country located in a region of increasing strategic importance.
• In an interview with TOI, during his visit to India earlier this year, Rakotonirina had said Madagascar wanted to gain from India through joint military exercises and capacity-building programs.

India and Madagascar already have an MoU for defense cooperation and, as Rakotonirina had said, the latter wants a Malagasy-Indian joint commission for cooperation in the maritime sector through the transfer of Indian expertise to Magalasy National Navy.

The UK wants trade, security pact with India, says Foreign Secretary Liz Truss

To challenge the influence of authoritarian states, the UK wants to get into agreements, covering trade and security with India and other democratic nations in the Indo-Pacific region, said Britain’s new Foreign Secretary Liz Truss on Sun.

• Until her recent promotion within UK Cabinet, Truss as international trade secretary was in-charge of talks with India on a future Free Trade Agreement (FTA).
• The foreign secretary said that she is keen to strike more deals in line with AUKUS, the trilateral security alliance between Australia, the UK, and the US, which is widely seen as a counter-balance to China.
• In her first major interview since taking over the new role, Truss told The Sunday Times, “We want to work with our friends and allies to create more economic agreements and security agreements.”
• “Some countries we will be able to enter deeper security arrangements with than others. One thing I know from being Trade Secretary for two years is that the UK is hugely trusted.” the leader added.
• In addition to AUKUS, Britain is planning to sign strategic deals with India, Canada, and Japan, Truss said.

Classified parts of the US-Taliban Doha deal have India worried

India is coming to terms with the fact that notwithstanding Pakistan’s role in supporting the Taliban and ensuring a strategic failure of the US in Afghanistan, Washington could be re-engaging with Islamabad — perhaps shorn of illusions — once again, after a gap.

• Foreign minister S. Jaishankar pointed to the “tactical compromises” the US might be making in Af-Pak — both vis- a-vis the Taliban and Pakistan.
• Acknowledging for the first time, mildly reproachfully, that India had been kept in the dark about the details of the US-Taliban deal, Jaishankar told an event in Washington.
• Jaishankar’s reference was to the classified portions of the US-Taliban peace agreement in Doha, two annexures of which were not shared — not only with India but will the US’ partners as well.
• Economic Times reported citing sources, these secret portions included military actions that the US in Afghanistan.
• There is deep disquiet in India about the details of the secret portions of the agreement that could have an impact on India.

“When I say levels of concern, there were commitments which were made by the Taliban at Doha…The US knows that best, we were not taken into confidence on various aspects of that.” Jaishankar added.

• The upshot of this was that US actions threw Afghan civil society and the Ashraf Ghani govt under the bus, as the Taliban swept into Kabul in mid-August.
• India faces a challenging diplomatic-security situation post the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan.
• This relates not only to the legitimacy of the Taliban govt in Afghanistan, but it also relates to Pakistan’s relative positioning vis a vis Afghanistan, China, and now, the US, that could have a bearing on India’s security space.

This week, US deputy Secy of State Wendy Sherman will visit India followed by Pakistan, a script that hasn’t been followed in the recent past.

For the present, US officials have indicated this would involve evacuations, but sections in the Indian establishment feel that given US’ intelligence vulnerabilities in Af-Pak, the US-Pak engagement may grow.

However, there is a growing clamor in Washington to call Pakistan out for its role, with a new Bill introduced in the US Congress that directly mentions Pakistan and calls for an “assessment of support by state and non-state actors, including the government of Pakistan, for the Taliban between 2001 and 2020.”

These are already reports of worsening the situation in Afghanistan, like signs of abuse of women, removing them from employment and education, suffering of minorities, etc, which is directly related to the way the Taliban took control.

This is already playing out badly in the internal politics of the Democrats in Washington, as the main reason the Afghan govt folded as it did was that there was virtually no space for it in the Doha deal.

• The Indian concern is the number of weapons left behind by the departing US troops for the Taliban to use.
• Given their uncertain control and an economic crisis, India is worried that these weapons could find their way to armed criminals and terror groups, potentially causing havoc.
• However, unlike the last time, the India-US relationship has evolved to a place that now sees both countries at least exchanging notes on Afghanistan, though there are many areas where India does not agree with the US.
• The UN’s credentials committee is expected to meet in Nov to take a call on giving the UN seat to the Taliban, while later has already named their spokesperson, Suhail Shaheen.
• The other check to wholesale acceptance of the Taliban has been the UNSC resolution 2593, which sets down conditions for the Taliban’s acceptability and committed the international community to it.
• Even if the UN decides to grant the UN seat to the Taliban, there will be other hurdles, particularly their international travel.
• India chairs the Taliban sanctions committee in the UNSC — since many members of the Taliban govt are under UN sanctions, these would have to be lifted before they can travel.

Taiwanese Foreign Minister warns his country is preparing for war with China, asks Australia for help

Taiwan’s Foreign Minister, Joseph Wu warns his nation is preparing for war with China and urges Australia to increase intelligence sharing and security cooperation as Beijing intensifies a campaign of military intimidation. Speaking to the ABC’s China Tonight program, Wu declared that if the PLA were to launch an actual strike, his democratic state would be ready to repel it.

• Wu warns of looming war with China and urges closer cooperation with Australia
• Wu has also thanked Australia for supporting Taiwan’s bid to join a new trade pact

“If China is going to launch a war against Taiwan we will fight to the end, and that is our commitment.” “I’m sure that if China is going to launch an attack against Taiwan, I think they are going to suffer tremendously as well,” Wu said

The US says China ‘undermining regional peace’, stability near Taiwan

Expressing its concerns over China’s activity near Taiwan, the US has asked Beijing to cease its military coercion against Taipei and stressed that the communist regime is “undermining regional peace and stability”.

“The United States is very concerned by the People’s Republic of China’s provocative military activity near Taiwan. We urge Beijing to cease its military, diplomatic, and economic pressure and coercion against Taiwan,” US State Department’s spokesperson Ned Price said in a statement on Sun.

Underlining that the US has an abiding interest in peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, Price emphasized that Washington will continue to assist Taipei in maintaining a sufficient self-defense capability.

• He stressed that the US will maintain its commitments as outlined in the Three Communiques, the Taiwan Relations Act, and the 6 Assurances.
• Washington’s commitment to Taipei is rock solid and contributes to the maintenance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and within the region, said Ned Price.
• Taiwan on Sat had said that at least 58 Chinese warplanes entered its air identification zone (ADIZ) in the last two days of which 20 of them flew in on Sat alone.
• A total of 38 Chinese military planes, such as fighter jets and bombers, entered the area on Fri, Kyodo News reported citing the Defence Ministry.
• These were said to be the biggest incursions by the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) since Taipei began publicly reporting such activities last year. (ANI)
• In the afternoon of Oct 2, 20 PLA aircraft, including 14 J-16s, four SU-30s, and two Y-8 ASWs, entered the airspace. And 19 PLA aircraft including 12 J-16s, six SU-30s, and KJ-500 AEW&C, entered Taiwan’s southwest ADIZ at night.

“It’s evident that the world, the international community, rejects such behaviors by China more and more,“

Taiwanese Premier Su Tseng-chang said on Saturday.

• Meanwhile, the United States said it is concerned with China’s increasing military activity near Taiwan. It added that China’s military pressure against Taiwan undermines regional peace and stability.
• China claims Taiwan as a breakaway province, which it has said will be unified with the mainland by force if necessary.

The Chinese state-run tabloid, Global Times, reported citing an expert, Song Zhongping, on Sat that the increasing scale of exercises is ‘normal’ since the PLA needs more deployment to deter armed forces on the island and foreign interference from other nations. It added the both the USS Ronald Reagan and USS Carl Vinson aircraft carriers were sailing in waters near the island of Taiwan on Sept 27, the news website of the US Naval Institute reported on the day.

US-China trade war: Washington set to exempt some products from tariffs

• Companies expected to be able to lobby for exemptions from import duties on Chinese goods, although criteria yet to be revealed
• US Trade Representative Katherine Tai to give a speech setting out the Biden administration’s approach to trade with China

Shura Mujahideen, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan declare 20-day truce in Pakistan’s North, South Waziristan  

Two terror groups active in Pakistan have declared a truce with the govt. A militant group Headed by commander Hafiz Gul Bahadur, active in North Waziristan has announced a 20-day cessation of hostilities to pursue peace with the Pakistani government on Friday. In a statement, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan fighters in South Waziristan have also declared the ceasefire.

• Shura’s decision seems to have been taken after negotiations were held with the govt intermediaries some two weeks ago.
• The move has also been endorsed by two other militant commanders of North Waziristan, Sadiq Noor, and Sadiqullah, the report said.
• According to the TTP statement, the leaders have asked all fighters to observe a ceasefire from today to October 20. The leaders are engaged in some “secret talks”, said the TTP, without elaborating any further.
• Earlier, in an operation against terrorists, a top commander of the Islamic State group was killed in the Balochistan province of Pakistan, as per a counter-terrorism official.
• The development came hours after Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) claimed an attack on a Frontier Corps (FC) vehicle in the Harnai district of the province, where four soldiers were killed and one was hurt.
• In recent months, there has been an uptick in attacks on security forces.

‘Pandora Papers’: Key members of Pakistan PM’s inner circle among over 700 Pakistanis named in leaks

Over 700 Pakistanis, including some ministers and key members of Prime Minister Imran Khan’s inner circle, were listed among the individuals whose names were linked with the Pandora Papers, an investigation uncovering financial secrets held by high-profile individuals around the world.

The International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) on Sun unveiled “Pandora Papers”, according to which Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin, Minister for Water Resources Moonis Elahi, Senator Faisal Vawda, the family of Minister for Industries among others, had links with offshore companies, Geo News reported.

• Some retired army officials, businessmen — including Axact’s CEO Shoaib Sheikh — and media company owners, have also been named in the leaks.
• According to the report, leaked documents revealed that “key members” of PM Khan’s inner circle, including cabinet ministers, their families, and major financial backers “have secretly owned an array of companies and trusts holding millions of dollars of hidden wealth”.
• More than 600 reporters from around the world, belonging to 150 media organizations spanning 117 countries, participated in the research for two years for the Pandora Papers, which contain 11.9 million files containing 2.94 terabytes worth of confidential information.
• Pakistani investigative reporter Umar Cheema, who was part of the probe along with fellow journalist, Fakhar Durrani, shared details with Geo News.
• The two reporters are associated with The News newspaper owned by the Jang Group which also owns the Geo News.
• Sachin Tendulkar’s attorney, however, said the cricket player’s investment is legitimate and has been declared to tax authorities, the ICIJ report noted. Sachin Tendulkar among others named in Pandora Papers leak exposing offshore dealings
• Detailing the difficulties encountered in contacting the people named in the investigation Mr. Cheema said that written questions were first sent. Some were contacted by phone, who would hang up when told what the probe is about, some refused to give their email addresses, others were also contacted through WhatsApp.
• It must be noted that establishing and declaring an offshore company, which is not involved in any illegal practices, is permissible by law.
• Speaking of PM Khan’s Lahore residence, 2 Zaman Park, he said that the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ), the non-profit newsroom and journalist network based in Washington DC, organized the investigation, sent questions to the PM’s spokesperson.
• It took the ICIJ almost two years to organize the investigation that involved more than 600 journalists in 117 countries, making it the biggest-ever journalism partnership. By comparison, for the Panama Papers, almost 400 journalists from 80 countries participated in the investigation.
• The Pandora Papers leak will uncover financial secrets of more leaders and public officials than the Panama Papers did and provide more than twice as much information about the ownership of offshore companies, reports suggest.
• The Panama Papers were based on the data of a Panama-based law firm called Mossack Fonseca that revealed offshore holdings of 140 politicians, public offshore, and sports stars. Those documents were obtained by the German newspaper, Süddeutsche Zeitung, which contained records dating back 40 years.
• The Pandora Papers investigation is bigger in size and revelations about politicians and public officials are also far more than what previously came to public attention.
• In July 2017, a five-member Supreme Court bench unanimously ruled against Mr. Sharif, disqualifying him from the office in the Panamagate scandal.
• More than 300 Indians find their names mentioned in the Pandora papers. Cricketer, Sachin Tendulkar, a businessman Anil Ambani, who interestingly, Anil Ambani declared bankruptcy in a court in the UK, Biocon Founder Kiran Mazumdar-Shaw, Fugitive jeweler Nirav Modi’s sister and Film Actor Jackie Shroff are some big names on the Indian list.