China-Taliban Romance: What is in Open

“In the midst of CHAOS, there is also opportunity.” – Sun Tzu

Though China-Afghanistan, which share merely 72 km border, avails a good relationship throughout the last century, except for a brief interruption, after the Sino-Soviet split and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan (1979), with Russia installing pro-Soviet and anti-Chinese regimes in Afghanistan, however, the interference of the USA in Afghanistan has limited the relationship up to some extent. Sino-Afghan relations have also improved significantly in the 21^st century. While China dealing ruthlessly with the Uyghur Muslims, the Taliban school of thought was simply unsuitable to it. Of course, China in its first attempt tried to reconcile the Taliban issue even in Afghanistan itself. However, after understanding the ground realities in Afghanistan, which unfortunately Washington couldn’t smell or might not be interested to know, the very thought of land. Thus, a 180-degree shift become visible in China’s lens to see Afghanistan, which shifted from the effort to crush the Taliban in their land to negotiation with Kabul and finally supported the Taliban at the condition, not to bite back the Beijing.

In 2013, Xi Jinping inaugurated the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a vast network of infrastructure projects spanning more than 60 countries. But the BRI largely excludes Afghanistan, moving through Central Asia and Pakistan instead. While China intentionally ignoring the USA muscular interference in Kabul but has expanded its economic footprint and China’s direct investment in Afghanistan increased by more than 11% in 2020.^[1] Between 2019 and 2020, the value of Afghanistan’s exports to China was $US55.3 million ($77.2 million), while the country’s imports totaled $US986.5 million ($1.37 billion).

However, the country’s weak logistics and security situation make it difficult to extract and transport these resources. But China has got its foot in the door, winning rights to Amu Darya Basin oil in the north and the massive Mes Aynak copper mine near Kabul.^[2] In 2012, a scholar, Erica Downs,^[3] a fellow of John L Thronton China Center, at Brookings Institute wrote:

“….while it is fair to say that China is free-riding on US-led stabilization efforts in Afghanistan because Chinese companies are benefiting from a public good to which China has not contributed, the mining and energy investments made by Chinese companies could well end up advancing US goals.”

According to Zhao Hong, (2012), at the Institute of Southeast Asia study, China in those years has found that as the U.S. is to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan and China’s interests in the country are rapidly growing, Beijing has adjusted its stance from cultivated disinterest to growing engagement. Indeed, from a broader perspective, Afghanistan also helps China implement its ‘March West’ strategy to ‘expand economic and strategic influence in Central Asia, the Middle East, and beyond.’^[4]

So, What Next?

China to March East, the only obstacle was the unstable security conditions in Afghanistan, which if could manage properly, either through the establishment or through anti-establishment, it hardly affects Beijing’s interest. It is highly likely to accept that China in its first attempt has supported Kabul, as US’ forces were there, and continued superficially till July 19^th of this year, close to the withdrawal of the US from Kabul. Beijing, therefore, hedged, supporting the Afghan government while maintaining informal contacts with the Taliban with help of Pakistan’s ISI. It may have used the Chinese-run Saindak mine in Pakistan for clandestine meetings with the group, according to Andrew Small in The China-Pakistan Axis.^[5] China and Pakistan were the only states to maintain their ties with the Taliban after 9/11.^[6]

As early as in the late 1990s Beijing sent a diplomatic mission to Mullah Omar to get assurances that Afghan soil would not be used as a launching pad for terrorist activities in China. The Taliban’s supreme leader agreed.^[7] The group may even have received Chinese weapons, according to Small, and there were also suspicions that the Taliban intentionally avoided attacking Chinese infrastructure projects in Afghanistan. The copper mine at Aynak, near Kabul, had been untouched by the Haqqani Network since China secured extraction rights in 2007.

However, when the Obama administration announced its intention to withdraw US forces by 2014, Beijing grew concerned by the prospect of instability on its border. However, the risk of terrorist violence hemorrhaging out of Afghanistan encouraged China to engage more deeply with its neighbor.

In the recent time after understanding the US intention to withdraw its troops, a peace envoy from Afghanistan met in western China last week with former Taliban officials with close ties to Pakistan’s intelligence agency, in an attempt to keep open the possibility of formal Afghan peace talks, officials said on May 25^th, 2015.

The meeting, hosted by China and, in part, organized by Pakistani officials, took place Wed and Thu in Urumqi, capital of the western region of Xinjiang, which has mountainous borders with Afghanistan and Pakistan and is home to many Muslims.

The fact that Beijing is encouraging peace efforts and an end to Afghanistan’s 13-year civil war. In late 2014, two Afghan Taliban officials came to Beijing with Pakistani officials to discuss peace moves.^[8] However, the Chinese foreign office refused that it has any information on the report published in the Wall Street Journal.^[9]

China has relied on Pakistan to help broker deals with such Islamist groups (including the Taliban) and to apply the right amount of pressure to ensure these deals are kept. Owing in part to these arrangements, the Uighur movement has never figured prominently in the global jihadist narrative, and none of the major international terrorist organizations have conducted operations inside of China.^[10]

On Dec 2^nd, 2015, China offered to mediate in stalled Afghan Taliban peace talks and said “We will support the Afghan government in realizing reconciliation with various political factions including the Taliban,” Yi Wang, foreign minister of China told reporters in Islamabad. He added, “China is ready to play its constructive role and will provide necessary facilitation at any time if it is required by various parties in Afghanistan.”^[11]

On Dec 28, 2016, a meeting held in Moscow, Russia, and China reaffirmed their readiness for flexible approaches to the prospect of excluding certain individuals from the list of sanctioned persons. The Pak Tribune reported that the most significant takeaway of the Moscow meeting was Russia and China’s announcement to show a ‘flexible approach’ to delisting Afghan individuals [Taliban’s leader] from the UN sanctions lists as their contribution to the efforts aimed at launching a peaceful dialogue between Kabul and the Taliban.^{[12, 13, 14]}

While a couple of months earlier, Ghani had urged the UN to add Taliban leader Mullah Hibatullah Akhundzada to the sanctions list. Recently, the Russian ambassador to Afghanistan also publicly confirmed rumors that Moscow has contacts with the Taliban. Ties between Russia and the Taliban worry Afghan, U.S. officials: Reuters reported on Dec 3^rd, 2016.^[15] Importantly, according to some sources, whenever the Taliban meet with some regional countries such as Russia, Iran, and China, its leaders point out that the American military presence is also against their interests as well; therefore, regional governments should help the Taliban.^[17]

Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi visited Kabul and Islamabad June 24-25, in 2017 in a bid to reduce tension between Afghanistan and Pakistan, one of the toughest regional diplomatic challenges. While regional stability is the main prerequisite for realizing the “China dream” of grand international connectivity projects, restoring peace in Afghanistan is equally critical for China’s security. This move of China enhanced its influence over the regional geopolitical scenario. Also, China had the added advantages of a rock-solid friend, Pakistan, which the US and Russia didn’t enjoy. This has provided a well-positioned to facilitate intelligence sharing and border security mechanisms between Pakistan and Afghanistan. ^[18]

While China to get interference in Afghanistan, deepen the ties with the establishment as well. In 2017, several state-level visits have re-energized Afghan-China ties. On June 8^th, 2017 a meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Afghan counterpart Mohammad Ashraf Ghani, the head of states pledged to boost bilateral cooperation within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).^[19] Moreover, the Afghan Minister of Public Works Mahmuod Baligh and Vice-Chairman of China Road and Bridge Corporation Lu Shan signed the $205 million deal during a ceremony in the Afghan Presidential Palace. On Nov 3, 2015, Chinese Vice President Li Yuanchao and Afghan President Mohammad Ashraf Ghani attended the reception marking the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Afghanistan.^[20]

There has been a strong push by Beijing to negotiate with the Taliban, considered a lesser evil than the Islamic State. In March 2017, a Taliban delegation visited China. The foreign minister, Wang Yi, has affirmed that China is willing to play a ‘constructive role’ in the Afghan peace process.^[21]

On Jan 24, 2018, the Taliban has confirmed Afghan Peace Meetings with Pakistan, China, Others, VOA News reported.^[22] In a Pashto-language statement circulated to media Wed, the Islamist insurgency confirmed for the first time that a 5-member delegation from the Taliban’s Qatar-based Political Office recently traveled to Islamabad and held talks with officials there, which was not officially confirmed by Pakistan. It is further added that with the cooperation of Pakistan, it said, the Taliban delegation later met with officials from China, Qatar, and other nations to discuss ways to end the conflict in Afghanistan. 

On Aug 6^th, 2018, Financial Times reported that “China courted Afghan Taliban in secret meetings”. The report claimed that Chinese officials have met the Afghan Taliban several times in the past year, figures in the Pakistan govt told the FT, as Beijing seeks to play an important role in ending the 17-year conflict in Afghanistan. Citing a Pakistani official, it said that the Chinese took great care in making those arrangements [of Taliban, who went to Beijing],” said one Pakistani official who had been briefed on the trip. The report further claimed that China’s willingness to talk directly to the Taliban rather than simply helping mediate in the US or Afghan-led talks shows how the country is becoming increasingly involved in the south and central Asian geopolitics.^[23]

A Taliban delegation headed by its leader Mullah Baradar held talks with Deng Xijun, China’s special envoy on Afghanistan, in Beijing in Sept. ^[24] A Taliban delegation met China’s special representative for Afghanistan in Beijing to discuss the group’s peace talks with the United States, a spokesman for the Islamist insurgency said. The meeting, on Sunday, comes after U.S. President Donald Trump’s 11^th-hour cancellation earlier this month of negotiations with the Taliban, which many had hoped would pave the way to a broader peace deal with the Afghan government and ending an 18-year war.^[25]

Less than a month later, Al Jazeera reported on Oct 23, 2019 “China invites Taliban, Afghan officials for two-day talks”. Beijing to host conference following collapse of the talks between Taliban and the US. A spokesman for former Afghan president Hamid Karzai, who attended intra-Afghan talks in Russia in Feb, said Karzai’s office was aware of China’s plan for talks and Karzai would attend if invited. ^[26]

China, seeking to play a greater role in the Afghan peace process, on Mon said it is making efforts to host a ‘rare meeting’ between the Afghanistan officials and the Taliban in the country to discuss the peace and reconciliation efforts in the war-torn nation. Taliban, which till recently was holding talks with the US before it collapsed in Sept, TOI reported on Nov 11, 2019. It further added China is also conducting a trilateral Foreign Ministerial level talk with Pakistan and Afghanistan to iron out differences between Islamabad and Kabul over concerns of the Taliban’s presence in Pakistan.^[24]

Asked why the talks were delayed, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang told a media briefing here on Wednesday (Nov 20, 2019) that Beijing is in touch with all the parties. “Currently, regarding the Intra-Afghan meeting in China, we are in communication with all the parties in Afghanistan,” Geng said without giving any specific reason for the postponement.^[27]

On Dec 14, 2019, the Chinese embassy itself admitted “The Chinese government has a long history of engaging with the Taliban, dating back to the late ‘1990s’ when the militant group last controlled Afghanistan”^[28] just to hide that their diversion in kind of engagement with Taliban after understanding that US’ troops will withdraw.

A video released by state broadcaster CGTN in 2019 compared the ETIM to al Qaeda and ISIS, saying it “has attempted to recruit people on a massive scale, spreading a radical ideology that continues to cause chaos in many countries around the world.”^[29]

On asking to comment on Mar 2^nd 2020 “The US and the Taliban signed a peace deal in Doha, Qatar on Feb 29. The Chinese Foreign ministry replied “China welcomes the signing of this agreement between the US and Taliban, which we believe will play a positive role in promoting a political settlement of the Afghan issue. Meanwhile, the international community should continue to support and engage in the Afghan peace and reconstruction process.”^[30]

Chinese officials reportedly continued to meet with Taliban representatives as US President Donald Trump’s administration began pulling its troops out of Afghanistan under the terms of the peace deal signed between the US and the group in Feb 2020. ^[31] An article published in ‘Gandhara’, on May 5^th, 2020 by  Mustafa Sarwar entitled “China Ramps Up Role In Afghanistan Ahead of U.S. Withdrawal” reported that Beijing was actively enhancing contacts and possibly building robust relations with the Afghan government in Kabul and the Taliban, ‘visibly’ pushing for reconciliation between its longstanding ally Pakistan and Afghanistan. China is underpinning its diplomacy with the prospects of greater trade and investment in the impoverished country.^[32]

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has rejected loans from China (June 15, 2020) before as he understands the crippling debt and economic dependence associated with it, a sentiment also pushed by Washington onto Kabul.^[33]

Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi said on Mon (Aug 24, 2020) talks with a delegation of Taliban leaders would be held on Tue, to be followed by a visit by the Chinese special envoy for Afghanistan, Liu Jian, to ensure a “coordinated and considered approach” toward peace. The dates for Liu’s visit have yet to be announced. The visit follows the U.S.-Taliban peace deal signed on Feb. 29, which included a prisoner swap between Kabul and the Taliban in the lead-up to intra-Afghan talks.^[34]

“A negotiating team led by Taliban deputy chief Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar will discuss the peace process and relaxation on the movement of people and refugees during their visit to Pakistan, according to their spokesman Suhail Shaheen. The group will also visit other countries, he said in a Twitter message”.- Bloomberg

Arif Sahar, an Afghan security expert based in London, saw before May 2020 that China pursuing some major objectives in Afghanistan in the possible post-U.S. withdrawal period. Based on leadership statements and actions, Sahar also says Beijing is actively pursuing a close relationship with the Taliban. But Beijing’s low-key investment approach didn’t appeal to Washington. In November 2019, Alice Wells, the retired in Apr, acting assistant secretary of state for South and Central Asia, voiced criticism of China’s role in Afghanistan.

“The Chinese have very carefully cultivated many political leaders to buy political support for the projects in Afghanistan at the same time, ” the source said, adding that “the Chinese government can ill afford to see Afghanistan not webbed through the BRI.”^[35]

For its part, while Beijing officially supports Afghan national reconciliation, it is also sending strong signals that it plans to treat the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan should such a moment come to pass.^[36] Also, the Chinese state media, Global Times through said citing an expert, “making an enemy of the Taliban was not in the interest of China.”^[37] This was just a week later when the media outlet pushed an interview of an expert, “the Taliban [are] quietly transforming to become more like a political organization focusing on the internal affairs of Afghanistan, and it is preparing to take power.”^[38] In an interview, Wang Yi on July 13, 2021, said that the Taliban to make a “clean break” with terrorism should the group retake Afghanistan.^[39] So China was prepared and fielded properly to deal with the Taliban.

Pentagon report on Afghanistan regarding the role of China in (Nov 2019)

“China has broadened its relationship with Afghanistan, which was largely confined to economic matters before 2015, toward a greater emphasis on political and military engagement. China has integrated Afghanistan into new multilateral security mechanisms, such as the Quadrilateral Cooperation and Coordination Mechanism. China promoted CT and economic integration between Afghanistan and Pakistan. China believes regional stability will improve its access to trade markets, weaken western regional influence, and counterbalance India’s role and strategic expansion in the region. China is seeking to become more involved in intra-Afghan talks.”^[40]

Therefore, from the conclusion point of view, it can be said with some conviction that while China was enjoying US protection after gaining substantial economic leverage in Afghanistan, till mid-last decads, but truncated its most ambitious planning to extend BRI through Afghanistan. However, as Beijing come to know the US intent to withdrawal of forces from Afganistan, it started woking on its Plan ‘B’ because it was fully aware of the fact that there won’t be any system can be run in an area with multiple groups of tribs, but at the same time, it cant be ignorant to the future threat, which can be disturbed the Xinjiang. Thus, the only option that remains in its hand is to get a lion’s share in the new establishment. Nevertheless, it would be interesting to watch that how long the so-called new ‘Acting Govt’ in Afghanistan can act and why not other big players will play.

1. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-29/the-taliban-trying-to-persuade-china-to-invest-in-afghanistan/100408696
2. https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/slowly-but-surely-china-is-moving-into-afghanistan-24276#:~:text=The%20country%E2%80%99s%20weak%20logistics%20and%20security%20situation%20make%20it%20difficult%20to%20extract%20and%20transport%20these%20resources.%20But%20China%20has%20got%20its%20foot%20in%20the%20door%2C%20winning%20rights%20to%20Amu%20Darya%20Basin%20oil%20in%20the%20north%20and%20the%20massive%20Mes%20Aynak%20copper%20mine%20near%20Kabul.
3. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/China-Buys-into-Afghanistan-Erica-Downs.pdf
4. https://www.jstor.org/stable/23722399
5. https://www.trtworld.com/opinion/the-odd-couple-china-s-deepening-relationship-with-the-taliban-28712
6. https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/06/21/why-is-china-talking-to-the-taliban/
7. https://thediplomat.com/2016/06/the-rise-of-china-afghanistan-security-relations/
8. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/14/world/asia/exploring-a-new-role-peacemaker-in-afghanistan.html?_r=0
9. http://www.wsj.com/articles/afghan-peace-envoy-met-taliban-in-secret-china-talks-1432486585
10. https://www.rand.org/blog/2015/10/pakistan-and-chinas-almost-alliance.html
11. http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/ssi/dragon.pdf
12. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-pakistan-china-idUSKBN0LG1UP20150212
13. https://tribune.com.pk/story/1277084/russia-china-favour-taking-taliban-off-un-sanctions-list
14. By TOLOnews, TV Network
15. https://thediplomat.com/2017/01/the-rise-of-taliban-diplomacy/
16. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-russia-idUSKBN13W2XJ
17. https://thediplomat.com/2017/01/the-rise-of-taliban-diplomacy/
18. https://www.mei.edu/publications/china-makes-diplomatic-play-afghanistan
19. https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/t1892908.shtml
20. http://mumbai.china-consulate.org/eng/zgyw/t1311792.htm
21. https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/chinas-afghanistan-strategy-status-security/
22. https://www.voanews.com/east-asia/taliban-confirms-afghan-peace-meetings-pakistan-china-others
23. https://www.ft.com/content/66b0906a-993d-11e8-9702-5946bae86e6d
24. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/south-asia/china-to-host-rare-meeting-between-afghan-govt-taliban/articleshow/72008412.cms
25. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-taliban-china/afghanistans-taliban-meets-chinese-government-in-beijing-idUSKBN1W70I3
26. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/10/23/china-invites-taliban-afghan-officials-for-two-day-talks
27. https://www.deccanherald.com/international/afghan-taliban-meeting-to-be-hosted-by-china-put-off-778096.html
28. https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/t1751334.shtml
29. https://news.cgtn.com/news/2019-12-07/The-black-hand-ETIM-and-terrorism-in-Xinjiang-MepKpOPAKA/index.html?from=singlemessage&isappinstalled=0
30. Chinese Foreign Ministry
31. https://www.statecraft.co.in/article/china-offers-infrastructure-investment-to-the-taliban-in-exchange-for-peace-in-afghanistan
32. https://gandhara.rferl.org/a/china-ramps-up-role-in-afghanistan-ahead-of-u-s-withdrawal-/30594555.html
33. The Diplomate 9/22/2020
34. https://theprint.in/world/pakistan-invites-taliban-china-to-discuss-afghanistan-peace-talks-aimed-at-ending-19-yr-war/488425/
35. https://www.thedailybeast.com/china-has-a-big-plan-for-post-us-afghanistan-and-its-worth-billions
36. https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/07/21/china-taliban-afghanistan-biden-troop-withdrawal-belt-road-geopolitics-strategy/?tpcc=recirc062921
37. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202107/1229006.shtml
38. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202107/1228488.shtml
39. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202107/1228616.shtml
40. https://media.defense.gov/2020/Jan/23/2002238296/-1/-1/1/1225-REPORT-DECEMBER-2019.PDF