Newsletter 15 April

April 15, 2021
 Team

National

Sino-Indian Standoff: (an ongoing story, for more, see the last letter)

PLA reluctant to restore April 2020 status at Gogra, post-US Kabul a new theatre

As reported yesterday, that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) wants India to recognize its NEW positions along the Ladakh LAC beyond patrolling point 15 and 17A and is very reluctant to go back to its dug-outs before April 2020, status quo along the 1597-km Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the western sector.

  • While New Delhi adamant about the completion of disengagement at all friction points to set the stage for de-escalation, it is evident from the meeting that more rounds of dialogue would be required to achieve the desired objective.
  • Diplomates aside, the PLA wants the Indian Army to recognize its new positions along the Ladakh LAC beyond patrolling points 15 and 17A.
  • As the words of the senior official with HT, “There are some 60 Chinese troops ahead of its April 2020 positions in the Gogra-Hot Springs area and disengagement remains incomplete till status quo ante is restored. Once this step is completed, the next step would be to address the patrolling rights of the Indian Army in Depsang Bulge, a 2013 legacy issue,” said another official.
  • Although External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has defined India as “an enlightened power with a strategic domain way beyond Malacca Straits and Gulf of Aden, China is expected to continue in the Middle-Kingdom mindset of the 18th century now that the US is withdrawing from Afghanistan by Sept 11th, 2021.”
  • India has made it amply clear that it will not allow China or any power to exercise a veto over its foreign policy or get beaten by Cold War phraseologies for being a leading partner in QUAD security grouping and a very close ally of France.
  • The Modi government is, however, aware that withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan will mean that China will exercise influence in the Islamic Republic through its client state Pakistan and its proxy, the Taliban.
  • The issue has got further complicated with Russia and Iran also being close partners of rising China resulting in weak opposition to the so-called Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan on the ground.
  • This will allow the ultra-conservative Taliban to take over Afghanistan and also give much-needed strategic depth to Pakistan and allow China to expand its Belt and Road Initiative up to Iran via Kabul.
  • In short, Islamic radicalization will further increase in Afghanistan and China will expand its area of influence to West Asia and Africa.

Quad navies can come together if needed in an almost ‘plug and play’ manner, Navy chief says

Noting that there is immense interoperability between the navies of the Quad grouping, Indian Navy chief Admiral Karambir Singh said on Wed at the Raisina Dialogue, they can come together in “almost a plug and play mechanism” if a military need arises in the Indo-Pacific region.

  • The statement is likely to rile up China, which sees the Quad as a grouping aimed at it.
  • Admiral Philip Scot Davidson, Commander of the US’s Indo-Pacific Command, identified the Quad as a strategic opportunity diplomatically, military, and economically, as he designated China as “the greatest strategic threat” to rules-based international order.
  • Speaking at the Raisina Dialogue Wed, the two navy leaders discussed the potential of the Quad and agreed that there are many new spheres of engagement where the grouping can come together and also include more like-minded countries.

High level of interoperability

  • Asked about the future of the Quad military in terms of joint patrolling and others, Admiral Singh said the Quad started as a consultative grouping and has evolved and grown organically, adding that India has been carrying bilateral naval exercises with Japan since 2012 and with the Australian Navy for the last 6 years.

‘Common good’

  • On his part, Admiral Davidson said the Quad has tremendous potential for cooperation, going far beyond the security sphere. 
  • Noting that the Quad has gained momentum, Admiral Davidson said, “It’s a diamond of democracies in region… We should think about it in broadest possible terms.” He added China seeks to exploit the current global pandemic with increased military aggression throughout the Indo-Pacific and to undermine international law and norms.
  • The Indo-Pacific region competes with a closed and authoritarian ‘Beijing vision’ and the idea of a free and open Indo-Pacific, he stressed.

Quad is not ‘Asian NATO’, India never had ‘NATO mentality’, Jaishankar says

The Quad is not an “Asian NATO” and India never had a “NATO mentality”, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar said Tue even as he stressed that in the changing global order, like-minded countries are coming together to form coalitions while Speaking at Raisina Dialogue.

  • The minister made the comments at the Raisina Dialogue, where he spoke along with Jean-Yves Le Drian, Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs of France, and Marise Payne, Minister for Foreign Affairs of Australia.
  • Jaishankar said the Indo-Pacific strategic construct is not about reinforcing the Cold War era but “overcome” it.
  • “The idea that when we come together and there is some sort of a threat or messaging to others, I think people need to get over this… This kind of using words like ‘Asian NATO’ etc is a mind-game which people are playing,” Jaishankar said.
  • After the Quad got revived in 2017, and now since the first-ever summit of the Quad countries — India, Japan, Australia, and the US — many commentators have referred to the Quad as the ‘Asian NATO’.
  • However, denying that the Quad is a security alliance or an “Asian NATO”, Jaishankar said the grouping has dealt with 10 broad subjects so far — vaccine collaboration, higher education, and student mobility, climate action, HADR (high availability disease recovery), emerging technology, resilient supply chains, semiconductors, disinformation, counterterrorism, and maritime security.

‘Indo-Pacific not about reinforcing Cold War’: As the world is changing, India is now also forming coalitions with other like-minded countries with which it can “work together” and it is so because multilateralism “is not delivering the way it used to”, he said.

  • “There’s a vacuum which has emerged where multilateral has fallen short,” he said.
  • Historically, India used to see Indo-Pacific as the Indian Ocean and Asia-Pacific. But today, due to globalization, the rebalancing of power and multipolarity “coming together” of countries have taken place, he added.

‘Willingness to work together: Speaking at the event, French FM Le Drian said, “We share the same willingness to work together simply because we get along well and not just because we share some common interests or concerns, but because we are democracies and because we comply with the rule of law. On top of it, we want to do it together.” The French FM also added that security in the Indo-Pacific region is very important.

According to Payne, Australia has a practical approach towards Indo-Pacific, and the Covid pandemic has made stronger democracies come together.

India, France, and Australia are planning to launch a trilateral dialogue soon.

India-China ties set for ‘hard times’ over next 5-10 years, ex-NSA Shivshankar Menon says

The India-China relationship will be marked by “hard times” over the next five to 10 years, former national security advisor (NSA) Shivshankar Menon said Tue as he discussed his new book during an online event hosted by Harvard Kennedy School. However, he said India-China tensions won’t be permanent.

India, EU ‘intensely preparing’ for a joint summit in May: EU Council chief Charles Michel

The European Union (EU) is not just an economic partner of India but is also determined to play a role in the security of the Indo-Pacific region, European Council President Charles Michel said Wed. Michel said the EU plans to focus on ‘four strengths of cooperation with India — Covid-19, climate change, economic cooperation, and security & peace while speaking at the sixth edition of Raisina Dialogue, jointly organized by the Ministry of External Affairs and the Observer Research Foundation.

The two countries are likely to discuss the long-pending Broad-based Trade and Investment Agreement (BTIA), or the free trade agreement, at the summit.

During the 15th India-EU Summit last July, the two put forth a roadmap on counter-terrorism while a high-level trade and investment dialogue was also launched. Modi had also raised the issue of the ongoing border standoff with China during the last summit.

‘Like-minded countries tend to look out for each other

Michel also stressed the shared democratic ideals between India and the EU. “India often comes up in the debate of the European Council even when it’s not on the agenda. Why is that?” Michel asked, and went on to answer: “Because in a world that is more interconnected, competitive, and less stable, like-minded countries tend to look out for each other and join forces…”

He emphasized the need for a rules-based international order and the importance of human rights, equal opportunity, gender equality, and the rule of law. He also said the EU is working on a comprehensive strategic approach to the Indo-Pacific region.

Four strengths of cooperation

The EU Council president said the EU plans to focus on “four strengths of cooperation” with India: fighting Covid-19, climate change, and boosting economic cooperation, and security and peace.

Michel also highlighted the need for an international treaty on pandemic response, which would be anchored in the World Health Organization (WHO), an idea that he floated at the G-20 summit last Nov.

Pakistan approves import of cotton, sugar from India

  • Pakistan is all set to resume bilateral trade with India after an economic committee gave the green signal on Wed. The nation is all set to import cotton and sugar from India from June 30, 2021.
  • The announcement was made by newly appointed finance minister Hammad Azhar on Wednesday, lifting a nearly two-year-old ban on imports from India.

India, Pakistan held secret talks to try to break Kashmir impasse: Report

  • Top intelligence officers from India and Pakistan held secret talks in Dubai in Jan in a new effort to calm military tension over the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir, people with close knowledge of the matter told Reuters in Delhi.
  • However, either side refused to comment on the issue.
  • Officials from India’s Research and Analysis Wing, the external spy agency, and Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence traveled to Dubai for a meeting facilitated by the United Arab Emirates Govt, two people said.
  • But Ayesha Siddiqa, a top Pakistani defense analyst, said she believed Indian and Pakistan intelligence officials had been meeting for several months in Thailand, in Dubai, in London between the highest level people countries.

Background: Ties between the nuclear-armed rivals have been on ice since a suicide bombing of an Indian military convoy in Kashmir in 2019 traced to Pakistan-based militants that led to India sending warplanes to Pakistan.

  • Later that year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi withdrew Kashmir’s autonomy to tighten his grip over the territory, provoking outrage in Pakistan and the downgrading of diplomatic ties and suspension of bilateral trade.
  • But the two Govt have re-opened a back channel of diplomacy aimed at a modest roadmap to normalizing ties over the next several months, the people said.
  • Kashmir has long been a flashpoint between India and Pakistan, both of which claim all of the regions but rule only in part.

'IT IS FRAUGHT'

  • Such meetings have taken place in the past too, especially during times of crisis but have never been publicly acknowledged.
  • “There is a lot that can still go wrong, it is fraught,” said one of the people in Delhi. “That is why nobody is talking it up in public, we don’t even have a name for this, it’s not a peace process. You can call it a re-engagement,” one of them said.

Both countries have reasons to seek a rapprochement.

India has been locked in a border stand-off with China since last year and does not want the military stretched on the Pakistan front, while China-ally Pakistan, mired in economic difficulties and on an IMF bailout program, can ill-afford heightened tensions on the Kashmir border for a prolonged period, experts say. It also has to stabilize the Afghan border on its west as the United States withdraws.

DIALLING DOWN THE RHETORIC

Following the Jan meeting, India and Pakistan announced they would stop cross-border shooting along the Line of Control (LoC) dividing Kashmir which has left dozens of civilians dead and many others maimed. That ceasefire is holding, military officials in both countries said.

  • Both sides have also signaled plans to hold elections on their sides of Kashmir this year as part of efforts to bring normalcy to a region riven by decades of bloodshed.
  • The two have also agreed to dial down their rhetoric, the people Reuters spoke to said.
  • This would include Pakistan dropping its loud objections to Modi abrogating Kashmir’s autonomy in Aug 2019, while Delhi in turn would refrain from blaming Pakistan for all violence on its side of the LoC.
  • These details have not been previously reported. India has long blamed Pakistan for the revolt in Kashmir, an allegation denied by Pakistan.
  • There is as yet, however, no grand plan to resolve the 74-year-old Kashmir dispute. Rather both sides are trying to reduce tensions to pave the way for a broad engagement, all the people Reuters spoke to said.
  • “Pakistan is transiting from a geo-strategic domain to a geo-economic domain,” Raoof Hasan, special assistant to Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, told Reuters.
  • “Peace, both within and around with its neighbors, is a key constituent to facilitate that.”

Maldives Foreign Minister Abdulla Shahid to start two-day India trip from 15 Apr

  • Foreign Minister of Maldives Abdulla Shahid will visit India on a two-day trip starting 15 April to discuss bilateral, regional, and international issues of mutual interest between the two countries.
  • According to the MEA, Shahid will participate in the Raisina Dialogue in a virtual mode in sessions on “Financing for Sun” and “Global public health after the Pandemic”.
  • During his visit to New Delhi, he will meet EMA S Jaishankar on April 16. They both will hold discussions on bilateral, regional, and international issues of mutual interest.
  • Maldives is India’s key maritime neighbor in the Indian Ocean Region and occupies a central and special place in the Prime Minister’s vision of ‘SAGAR’ – Security and Growth for All in the Region.

PM Modi's meetings with foreign dignitaries on hold in wake of Covid-19 situation

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has reduced his in-person interactions with foreign delegations given the rise in Covid-19 cases across the world. India records 200739 COVID-19 cases, 1,038 deaths in a day, highest-ever single-day spike.

  • On Wed, a French foreign minister was scheduled to call on PM during his official visit, but the meeting was canceled – India Today.
  • Maldivian Foreign Minister Abdulla Shahid is scheduled to arrive in India and he might also not be able to meet PM Modi.
  • Many dignitaries, who were to attend the MEA Raisina Dialogue, had canceled their visits with the event now being held virtually.
  • Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga is scheduled to visit India for the annual summit and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will also arrive here month-end. While there is no confirmation on whether Suga’s visit is on as per schedule, Johnson has reduced the length of his trip to India because of the Covid-19 situation in the country, Reuters cited Johnson’s spokesman said.

India, France sign agreement for cooperation over Gaganyaan space mission

Space agencies of India and France on Thursday signed an agreement for cooperation for the country’s first human space mission Gaganyaan, the French space agency CNES said. The agreement was announced during French Foreign Affairs Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian’s visit to the Indian Space Research Organisation’s (ISRO) headquarters. Among other things, the agreement provides for Indian astronauts to use French equipment, consumables, and medical instruments for missions

SC orders CBI probe in 1994 espionage case against Nambi Narayanan-HT

The Supreme Court was while hearing the Centre’s plea seeking consideration of the report filed by a high-level committee regarding the role of ‘erring’ police officials in the 1994 espionage case against former Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) scientist Nambi Narayanan, on Thu ordered an investigation by the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) in the 1994 espionage case.

  • Narayanan, who had been acquitted and was eventually awarded ₹50 lakh compensation by the top court in 2018, has welcomed the federal agency probe into the alleged police conspiracy to implicate him in the case, he said.

On April 5, the Centre moved the top court seeking urgent hearing and consideration of the panel’s report terming it as a “national issue”.

  • A bench headed by Justice A M Khanwilkar accepted the report by the committee court had appointed the panel on Sept 14, 2018, and directed the Kerala Govt to cough up ₹50 lakh compensation for compelling former ISRO scientist Nambi Narayanan to undergo “immense humiliation and asked the CBI to carry out further investigation in the case, which involves allegations of transfer of certain confidential documents on India’s space program to foreign countries by two scientists and four others, including two Maldivian women.
  • The committee was told to take appropriate steps against the culpable officials for causing “tremendous harassment” and “immeasurable anguish” to the scientist and had directed the Centre and state government to nominate one officer each in the panel, according to news agency PTI.

The court had termed the police action against Nambi Narayanan a “psycho-pathological treatment” and said that his “liberty and dignity“, basic to his human rights, were jeopardized as he was taken into custody and, eventually, was compelled to face “cynical abhorrence“, according to the agency.

The CBI, in its probe, had held that the then top police officials in Kerala were responsible for Narayanan’s illegal arrest.

Gujarat ATS, ICG Nab 8 Pakistani Nationals Smuggling 30 Kgs Heroin Near Jakhau Coast

The Gujarat Anti-Terrorism Squad (ATS) with help of the Indian Coast Guard on Thu apprehended a boat near the Jakhau coast with 8 Pakistani nationals and 30 kg of narcotics. The boat coming from Pakistan carried heroin worth â‚Rs 150 crores.

According to the Coast Guard, the Pakistani boat was intercepted close to the International Maritime Boundary Line (IMBL) in the Indian waters after receiving a tip-off from the incoming shipment.

Army, BSF bust drug nexus along LoC

In another incident of drug seizure, the Indian Army and Border Security Force busted Pakistan-sponsored narcotics being smuggled across the LoC in Karnah forests of Jammu and Kashmir. 

Ten kg of narcotics, estimated to be approximately Rs 50 crore was recovered by the forces amid India’s strong anti-infiltration drills to curb the menace of Pakistan’s ‘Narco Terror Model’.

National

French embassy advises citizens to leave Pakistan after TLP protests

The French embassy in Pakistan on Thu advised all French nationals and companies to temporarily leave the country after violent anti-France protests paralyzed large parts of the country this week.

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