Newsletter 14 April

April 14, 2021
 Team

National

Sino-Indian Standoff:

(an ongoing story, for background, see week@glnce)

China ‘changes stance’, wants de-escalation before disengagement in Ladakh. India disagrees

Why China wants De-escalation?

China can easily escalate and deploy the troops at the time of need due to its better infrastructure as well as geological configuration from its side.

Current Situation

While disengagement from the brink in Pangong Tso in Feb, observed as complete from two sides, where Indian position was advantageous, now Beijing wants the two armies to withdraw additional troops brought in as back-up to those in the front, which is a change in Beijing’s position from what the two sides had discussed in the 10th round talk in Feb, ThePrint has reported.

  • New Delhi, however, is insisting on disengagement from the remaining friction areas along the disputed Himalayan frontier first.
  • These were part of proposals exchanged between the two sides at the 11th round of Corps Commander level talks held last week, ThePrint cited the sources in the security establishment said.
  • The China Study Group will meet soon to take stock of the talks and discuss the proposal sent by China but army chief Gen. M.M. Naravane is currently in Bangladesh and is expected to return Tue.
  • The Army has already implemented a series of deployment changes in Ladakh for the summer and has also redrawn the Order of Battle (ORBAT) as one of the many steps planned to counter China.

De-escalation or disengagement?

  • The two sides have agreed that further escalation of tensions is in nobody’s interest but there is a difference between the modalities of the steps to be taken next and the order of those steps.
  • India is insisting on disengagement because troops are facing each other off in at least 4 other locations.
  • China was dragging its feet on disengagement at other friction points, including what experts say are the low-hanging fruits of Gogra and Hot Springs.
  • New Delhi stated after the 11th round talk, “it was highlighted also that completion of disengagement in other areas would pave the way for two sides to consider de-escalation of forces and ensure full restoration of peace and tranquility and enable progress in bilateral relations”.
  • While in the 10th round of talks, China and India had discussed the disengagement process and broadly agreed on some steps in the Gogra and Hot Springs area but China refused in the next talk and switched to talking about de-escalation.
  • While New Delhi was satisfied over the talk with China and said that Disengagement in the rest of eastern Ladakh will ‘take time’.

What to Watch:

Steps taken by both sides on the table and the ground. After losing tactical position in Pangong Tso just to continue the talk ahead on other frictions points, now the ball is in Beijing’s court.

On S-400 delivery Russia committed to agreed timeline, says envoy (ANI)

  • Delivery of S-400 air defense systems is on track and there is no delay or reluctance on part of Moscow, said Russian Ambassador to India Nikolay Kudashev on Wed while Speaking to reporters in New Delhi,
  • The US has alluded that if India goes ahead with S-400 procurement, it may attract sanctions under CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act).
  • India has consistently said that it acquires and purchases weapons and defense equipment keeping in view its national security interests.
  • Delivery of the S-400 missile systems is expected to begin later this year, which may be as early as Nov, according to sources’ words to ANI.
  • “In Defence, Russia remains the leading Indian partner. Internationally, we are on the same page with regards to the issues of promoting strategic stability and international security,” Kudashev added.
  • Meanwhile, Russian deputy envoy Roman Babushkin spoke on the recently approved Russian Covid-19 vaccine. “It will open up a new dimension in our special privileged strategic partnership”.
  • We stand strong in supporting the central role of the UN and we expand our coordination during the current Indian non-permanent membership in the Security Council,” Kudashev added.

India a pivotal world player, shares many security challenges with us, says NATO chief

North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) chief Jens Stoltenberg Tue said India was a “pivotal player” in the Indo-Pacific region, and added that the country shared many security challenges with the world body, ranging from Afghanistan to international terrorism and maritime security while speaking at the Raisina Dialogue 2021 organized by the Ministry of External Affairs and Observer Research Foundation (ORF).

He said that NATO sees “the value of strengthening our partnership with like-minded democracies such as India, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and South Korea, that stand up for the rules-based international order”.

“NATO and India should consult, coordinate and take concerted action together,” he said at the virtual event,.

As one of the largest troop contributors to UN peacekeeping missions, India is also an “important and active international actor”, he added.

“India truly matters on the global scene.”

On the global challenges facing the world today, Stoltenberg said NATO has been a pillar of an international order based on democracy, human rights, and the rule of law. Its 30 members represent 1 billion people, half the world’s economic might and half of the world’s military strength.

‘Rise of China cannot be ignored’

  • Speaking about changing world order and the security challenges facing the world, Stoltenberg said the rise of China is a “defining” global issue “which has implications for all of us and which NATO cannot ignore”.
  • “We see ‘new assertive moves’ by Beijing to challenge the rules-based international order. It is openly threatening Taiwan, coercing its neighbors, and hampering navigation in the South China Sea. China’s rise has huge implications for our security,” he said.
  • However, he also said it cannot be ignored that China is an important player with a rising global economy that has been able to bring millions of people out of poverty and it is also an important trading partner.
  • He added the main area of concern is that China is matching its military power with its economic power.
  • “It (China) has tripled its military expenditure over the last decade. It now has the world’s second-largest defense budget and continues to invest massively in military modernization. At the same time, China does not share our values,” Stoltenberg said as he added that China is persecuting ethnic Uyghurs.

Under Modi, India more likely to respond to Pakistan provocation with military force: US intel

The report that was released on Tue said that under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India is more likely to respond with military force to “perceived or real” provocations from Pakistan, the US intelligence community said in its annual report on threats around the world.

  • Though a general war between India and Pakistan is unlikely, crises between the two are likely to become more “intense”, with the risk of “an escalatory cycle”.
  • “…heightened tensions raise the risk of conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbors, with violent unrest in Kashmir or a militant attack in India being potential flashpoints,” it said.

Important to Note: The report comes amid both sides halted the heightened tension, at least what is perceived between New Delhi and Islamabad. And agencies know that Islamabad cant take it lightly.

  • India and Pakistan recently re-committed to the 2003 ceasefire agreement and on a rare occasion last month, Pakistan Army Chief said “it is time for the two countries to “bury the past and move forward”.
  • Earlier this month, Prime Minister Imran Khan, after holding consultations with key members of his cabinet, announced that Pakistan cannot go ahead with any trade with India under the current circumstances.
  • The US intelligence report also noted that tensions “between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan” remain a concern, not just for the US but for the world.

‘China-India border tensions remain high’

  • “China-India border tensions remain high, despite some force pullbacks this year,” the report said.
  • “China’s occupation since May 2020 of contested border areas is the most serious escalation in decades and led to the first lethal border clash between the two countries since 1975,” the report observed.
  • From the US perspective, the report described China as a “near-peer competitor” that is challenging America in multiple areas, especially economically, militarily, and technologically, while also pushing to change global norms.
  • The report predicted that Beijing will try to increase its influence using “vaccine diplomacy”.

India-France coalition has an important role to play in the Indo-Pacific region, says Le Drian [ANI]

French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves LeDrian on Wed said that the collation between India and France has a very important role to play in the Indo-Pacific region to adapt infrastructures to the consequences of climate change.

Speaking at a panel discussion on raising climate ambitions given COP26, the minister said, “From our point of view, this coalition has a very important role to play in the Indo-Pacific region to adapt infrastructures to the consequences of climate change. Here too, France will make a concrete contribution by seconding an expert to this organization in Delhi.”

He emphasized that both countries can fight single-use plastics and should invite nations as well.

We should invite other countries to join this momentum and – why not? – work on a moratorium on single-use plastics,” Le Drian said.

Le Drian also said India can be a model for many countries to show the way, not only in Asia but beyond.

CBSE class 10 exams canceled, 12th will be held later

Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a meeting on the upcoming CBSE Board exams on Wed following which the Education Ministry deferred the Class 12 exam and canceled the Class 10 Board exam.

The results of Class Xth  Board will be prepared based on an objective criterion to be developed by the Board.

Any candidate who is not satisfied with the marks allocated to him/her on this basis will be allowed to sit in an exam as and when the conditions are conducive to hold the exams,” the Ministry said in a press release on Tue.

As for the XIIth exam, the Govt will review the situation on June 1 to decide fresh dates and make an announcement at least 2 weeks before the start of the exam.

National

'Time to bring our forces home': the US on Afghan pullout

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wed said that the moment has arrived to bring the foreign troops home, adding that Washington would engage with NATO allies on a “coordinated” pull-out.

  • “Together, we have achieved the goals that we set out to achieve and now it is time to bring our forces home,” Blinken was quoted as saying by news agency AFP ahead of talks with NATO nations in Brussels.
  • Blinken’s comments came on a day when US President Joe Biden is set to formally announce that all US troops will be pulled out from Afghanistan no later than the ‘9/11 anniversary’ a senior official has confirmed.
  • Meanwhile, the US’s NATO ally Germany has supported the move of withdrawal by Sept with its Defence Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer saying: “We always said: we’ll go in together, we’ll leave together”.
  • A Times report claimed that Britain is also planning to pull out its 750 troops around the same time while it said that UK citing sources that without the US, Britain would “struggle” because of “a reliance on US bases and infrastructure.”
  • Meanwhile, Turkey has announced an international peace conference in Afghanistan to reach a solution to end nearly 40 years of violence and chaos that has ravaged the nation.
  • Meanwhile, the Taliban have rejected the United States’ plan to restore peace in Afghanistan as well as the proposed 6-month delay in the withdrawal of the American troops.

'Time to bring our forces home': the US on Afghan pullout

Interior Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmed on Wed while addressing pressers in Islamabad announced that the Govt had decided to ban the Tehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP), whose supporters and workers have been carrying out violent protests across the country for three days after the arrest of their chief.

  • “They were more prepared than us but today we’ve decided that [a] ban on TLP [will be placed] and this file is going to the cabinet for the approval from today,” the minister said.
  • His statement comes hours after law enforcement agencies and officials moved to clear TLP activists from roads in different cities of the country as protests entered a 3rd
  • He said 2 policemen were killed and at least 340 injured in the violence “and the law is following those who blocked roads through social media and gave the message of unrest”.
  • According to the minister, the police personnel held hostage by TLP workers to gain leverage for their demands have now returned to their police stations.
  • He said the Govt was still committed to present a bill regarding Namoos-i-Risalat in the National Assembly and had held several meetings in this regard with TLP leaders.
  • The minister said the TLP had done “extensive preparations” for their protest, which were effectively countered by police.
  • He called upon TLP members “who are running the media” to surrender, saying they were mistaken in their belief that they could create problems for the government through social media.
  • “We want a document that exalts the flag of the Prophet (PBUH), but what you are demanding gives an impression of us being an extremist-minded state to the world,” he told the TLP leadership.
  • Chairing a meeting in Islamabad to review the law and order situation, he directed law enforcement agencies to ensure the writ of the state at all costs.

Why is TLP protesting? The TLP is protesting against the arrest of their leader Allama Saad Hussain Rizvi, who was taken into custody earlier this week, and blasphemous caricatures published in France.

They have demanded that the French ambassador be sent home and import of goods from that country banned. The government had reached an agreement with the TLP on Nov 16 to involve the parliament to decide the matter in 3 months. As the Feb 16 deadline neared, the Govt had expressed its inability to implement the agreement and sought more time. The TLP had agreed to delay its protest by two-and-a-half months to April 20.

4 more people killed: A day earlier, 4 people were killed, hundreds of protesters and policemen were injured and thousands of TLP activists and supporters were arrested and booked for attacking law enforcement personnel and blocking main roads and highways.

Team
  • Team
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