Newsletter 25 February

Sino-Indian Standoff: The disengagement process at Pangong Tso was a 'win-win' for both India and China: Naravane

Chinese infra push across Sikkim, Arunachal border raises a red flag in Delhi

China has been carrying out rapid military-infra upgrade across the Upper Subansiri district in Arunachal Pradesh including at least 3 new bridges, troop sheds and a new 66km road
When Army Chief General MM Naravane spoke about the continuing trust deficit with People’s Liberation Army after the East Ladakh stand-off, he was reflecting the ground situation along the 3,488 km Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China undertaking significant military infra upgrade in the Eastern sector.
Even in the western sector, apart from the on-going Pangong Tso disengagement, there is no sign of reducing tension in the Gogra-Hot Springs area with PLA troops and weaponry amassed at Mabdo La across the LAC.
It is the same situation in the Depsang bulge area and across the Daulet Beg Oldi sector even as the military commanders on both sides work towards a roadmap to restore status quo ante on East Ladakh LAC.
However, the concern of the national security planners is the rapid infrastructure upgrades that the PLA is undertaking across Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh.
There is evidence to show increased troop and equipment sheds and better road communication across Naku La in north Sikkim.
The PLA simultaneously transgressed into the Naku La sector in May 2020 with both armies engaging in fisticuffs.
The PLA created Naku La as a friction point around 6 years ago with the intention to convey that while Beijing recognizes Sikkim as part of Indian Territory, the border still is unresolved.
Although New Delhi and Beijing have continued discreet conversations between top officials on both sides, Indian diplomats and security officials believe that India will have to prepare strategies to deal with both aggressive and friendly China and cannot afford to let the guard down.
China continues to play behind scenes in Nepal, Myanmar and Bangladesh after virtually snaring Pakistan and Sri Lanka in its debt trap under the garb of benign connectivity, a security official said.
The Chinese game plan goes beyond accessing Indian Ocean with security ramifications for Indian Navy by providing long sea legs to adversaries of India.

China realized its habit of creeping forward will not work with India, Army chief says

China has realized that its habit of creeping forward and achieving its aim without firing a shot or suffering casualties will not work with India, said Naravane Wed.
“China has been in the habit of creeping forward, making small incremental changes…and because of these small incremental moves, which has never been contested, it has been able to achieve its aim without firing a shot or suffering casualties. We have shown that this strategy will not work with us and every move will be met resolutely,” said Gen Naravane, while addressing a webinar, organized by Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF), a New Delhi-based think tank.
Speaking for the first time on the issue since India and China completed the disengagement process at the Pangong Tso in Ladakh last week, Naravane said that whatever has been achieved so far was “very good”.
He credited the disengagement to the approach taken by entire Govt machinery.
He further noted that the disengagement was a “win-win” situation for both India and China, and for any agreements to last both sides should feel that they have achieved something.
“To that end, this is a good outcome of the 10 rounds of talks,” the Army chief said, referring to the 10 rounds of Corps Commander level talks that were held between India and China.
It is part of the agreement and we can only hope that PLA will adhere to it in too,” said Naravane.
He further highlighted that certain issues remain pending between the two countries, and the Army had strategies in place for them.
“We have our strategies in place for that. Do we have anything to negotiate? Yes, we definitely have, but I can’t say what those strategies will be, to again come out with a favorable outcome.”

India kicked off BRICS Chairship with inaugural 3-day-long Sherpas' meeting ANI

India kicked off its BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) Chairship with the inaugural 3-day-long Sherpas’ meeting, said Anurag Srivastava, Ministry of External Affairs Spokesperson on Wed.
Taking to Twitter, Srivastava said, “India kicked off its BRICS Chairship with the inaugural three-day-long Sherpas’ meeting. Secretary (CPV & OIA) chaired the meeting and introduced our themes, priorities, and calendar for #BRICS2021.”
“India looks forward to continuing productive discussions with our BRICS partners over the next two days,” Srivastava wrote in a subsequent tweet.
According to the MEA release, on Feb 19, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar launched India’s BRICS 2021 website at the BRICS Secretariat at Sushma Swaraj Bhawan.
Extending the support to India in hosting this year’s summit, Chinese President Xi Jinping may visit India later this year.
Asked about Xi’s possible attendance at the summit and whether the border tension would affect their multilateral cooperation, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said BRICS had become an influential grouping and Beijing supported New Delhi’s efforts as host, South China Morning Post reported.
“China attaches great importance to the BRICS mechanism,” Wang said at a regular press brief, Mon.
“The Chinese side supports the Indian side in hosting the meeting and is willing to work with India and other BRICS countries in expanding cooperation on economy, politics and people-to-people exchanges,” he added.
Wenbin’s statement comes a day after India and China “positively appraised” the smooth completion of disengagement of frontline troops in the Pangong Lake area and agreed to continue their communication and push for a mutually acceptable resolution of the remaining issues along the LAC in the Western Sector.

Armies of India, Pakistan agree to ceasefire along LoC from Feb 24 midnight

Director Generals of Military Operations of India and Pakistan held discussions over the established mechanism of hotline contact. It underlines:
The two sides reviewed the situation along the Line of Control (LoC) and all other sectors in a free, frank and cordial atmosphere.
In the interest of achieving mutually beneficial and sustainable peace along the borders, the two DGsMO agreed to address each other’s core issues and concerns which have propensity to disturb peace and lead to violence.
Both sides agreed for strict observance of all agreements, understandings and cease firing along the LoC and all other sectors with effect from midnight 24/25 Feb 2021.
Both sides reiterated that existing mechanisms of hotline contact and border flag meetings will be utilized to resolve any unforeseen situation or misunderstanding.

NSA Doval led secret back-channels talks with Pak for months before DGMO pact-HT

The first sign that India-Pakistan back-channel conversations were on track came this month when Pak army chief Gen Bajwa said it was time to extend a hand of peace in all directions.
The joint statement issued by India and Pakistan on the ceasefire agreement between their top military commanders comes months after National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and Moeed W Yusuf, Prime Minister Imran Khan’s special assistant on National Security Division and Strategic Policy Planning, have been in touch directly and via interlocutors from the intelligence community in Islamabad initiated back-channel conversations to ensure peace along the borders, people aware of the matter said.
On May 29, 2018, the two DGMOs had also met and agreed to observe the 2003 ceasefire.
Post Aug 2019, CFVs went to record highs, more than 4,600 incidents in 2020 alone.

India’s $3-billion ISTAR Takes Shape, MoD Clearance this Year

The Indian Govt is all set to clear paperwork in the coming months to acquire a U.S. ISTAR (Intelligence Surveillance Targeting and Reconnaissance) battlefield and ground surveillance aircraft platform, the first step towards a larger joint project that will see India’s Defense Research & Development Organization develop sensor technologies for 4 additional aircrafts.
A model of proposed Indian ISTAR jet was displayed for the first time at the Aero India 2021 show earlier this month, which Livefist can confirm is a signal that things are on track after a troubled journey thus far.
That the speeding up of the program has happened in the aftermath of the Balakot air strikes by India on Pakistan is no coincidence.
Laboratory literature on the Indian ISTAR program goes on to say, ‘ISTAR is a MULTI INT Solution capable of exploiting image, SIGINT and track info from sensors and provide actionable intelligence for tactical and strategic advantage.’
Apart from airborne intelligence aircraft operated by RAW, the Indian Air Force currently operates three Phalcon AWACS (with two more to be contracted) and two DRDO-Embraer Netra AEW&C jet.
A third of the type is being used by the DRDO as a sensor testbed.
The DRDO was earlier also developing an AWACS system based on the Airbus A330 wide body jet platform, though that has, at the very least, been pushed down the priority ladder, if not shelved for now.
On the other hand, with priority backing, and transactional muscle provided by the India-US relationship, the ISTAR program is expected to move smoothly forward.

Siliguri-Dhaka train service to start on Independence Day of Bangladesh ANI

On the Independence Day of Bangladesh, the Indian and Bangladesh Govt decided to introduce a passenger train service from Mar 26 between New Jalpaiguri in Siliguri, India to Dhaka in Bangladesh.
This will be the 3^rd passenger train after Maitree express and Bandhan express, running between the two friendly neighborhood countries.
The PMs of both countries will jointly inaugurate the passenger train service, informed the officials.

Sensitive data breach reported at Army Northern Command

It is unclear how the soldier managed to smuggle out a chunk of data from the heavily guarded command but sources described it as a ‘high level breach’, which could have a bearing on security of soldiers posted in the region.
The Army declined to comment on the incident after ET reached out.
The Army is investigating a serious case of data breach from the sensitive Northern Command.
A soldier is alleged to have passed on a large chunk of secret information to his Pak-based handlers.
An inquiry is underway at the Nagrota based 16 Corps, deemed to be serious as it allegedly happened when the border with China too is active in eastern Ladakh.
Sources said the soldier belonged to an infantry regiment and is from Punjab.
He was posted at a sensitive branch in the Northern Command headquarters and is suspected to have been recruited by a foreign agency a few years ago.

India Locates Rohingya Refugee Boat Adrift At Sea, Provided Them With Food, Water: UNHCR

UNHCR informed that the Indian coast guard had answered its plea to look for a boat carrying Rohingya refugees believed to be adrift in the Andaman Sea.
The UN refugee agency, UNHCR, on Feb 25^th informed that the Indian coast guard found a boat carrying Rohingya refugees adrift in the Andaman Sea and provided them with food, water and medical care.
The Indian coast guard had answered a UN agency’s plea to look for the boat carrying Rohingya refugees believed to be adrift in the Andaman Sea without food and water for several days.
According to the Associated Press, about 90 refugees, including some children, started the journey to seek better lives.
The boat was believed to have left Bangladesh 2 weeks ago and then broken down at sea, leaving the refugees suffering from acute dehydration.
Chris Lewa, who is the director of the Arakan Project that monitors the Rohingya crisis, said they had heard at least 8 people had already died on the boat.

Govt press conference on new rules for social media and OTT platforms

‘Social media welcome to do business in India but users should be given forum to raise grievance’, said Union Minister RS Prasad in press briefing. Govt announces new social media rules:

- - Appoint a chief compliance officer (resident of India)
  - Appoint a nodal contact person (resident of India)
  - Appoint a resident grievance officer (resident of India)
  - Monthly compliance report has to be published
  - Form a redressal forum
  - Appoint a chief compliance officer
  - Remove sexual content in 24 hours
  - Disclose origin of fake news
  - Anti-India content banned
  - Publish monthly compliance report
  - In criminal cases, platforms has to give all information asked by the authorities within 72 hours.
  - “OTT platforms were repeatedly asked to form self-regulation rules, just like how TV has done in the past. But to no avail. Hence we decided to create institutional mechanism for all media,” said Union Minister Prakash Javadekar
  - WhatsApp users: 53 Crore
  - YouTube users: 44.8 Crore
  - Facebook users: 41 Crore
  - Instagram users: 21 Crore
    ‘Social media welcome to do business in India but users should be given forum to raise grievance’, said Union Minister RS Prasad in press briefing. Govt announces new social media rules:
  - Twitter users: 1.75 Crore [1]

UK court clears extradition of Nirav Modi, says he has a 'case to answer in India'

- Nirav Modi and his uncle Mehul Choksi are accused of routing transactions of about Rs 13,600 crore through fraudulent Letters of Undertaking (LoUs) of Punjab National Bank (PNB).
- Both men left India in the first week of Jan 2018, weeks before the scam was revealed.
- ‘I am satisfied that his extradition will be compatible with the (human rights) convention rights’, judge said.
- UK judge rules that Nirav Modi will be given adequate medical treatment and mental health care at Arthur Road Jail, Mumbai
- UK Extradition judge rules Nirav Modi conspired to destroy evidence and intimidate witnesses.
- “I do not accept that Modi was involved in legitimate business. I find no genuine transactions and believe there is a process of dishonesty”: District Judge Samuel Goozee
- It’s just 1^st step, he has other options to exhaust.

NEIGHBORHOOD/ WORLD

Nepal ruling party on verge of formal split

With the Nepal Supreme Court having reinstated the parliament, the door has opened to political deal-making in Kathmandu and the first step could see a formalizing of the split in the Nepal Communist Party.
The Prachanda-Madhav Nepal faction, opposed to PM K P Sharma Oli, not only commands more seats but sources said they may welcome breakaways from the Oli faction.
In addition, the rebels are reportedly talking to the Nepali Congress (under former PM Sher Bahadur Deuba) as well as the Baburam Bhattarai-led Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) to form a coalition, giving the PM slot to the NC which may suddenly find itself being wooed by both sides. Others in Kathmandu said the Oli faction may also be talking to the NC for the same reason.
Foreign minister Pradeep Gyawali, spokesperson for the Oli faction, was quoted as saying that the Govt would accept the Supreme Court ruling.
Significantly, there are no guarantees that Oli would actually resign. “A meeting of the House would also be called within 13 days,” Gyawali said.
Nepal sources said Deuba was very keen to become PM again, so may be tempted to shop for the best deal from the two sides.
After their party meeting on Wed, Madhav Nepal was quoted by the Nepali media as saying, “We are for joining hands with the Congress, Janata Samajbadi Party and other forces that are against K P Oli’s regression.
We have to form a coalition Govt. We told Deuba that let’s join hands.”
The Prachanda-Madhav Nepal faction controls 90 seats in the reinstated parliament while the Nepali Congress has 61 and the JSP 32. The Oli faction, on the other hand, has 83 members.

India on lips, Pakistan PM Imran Khan plays peace card in Sri Lanka

Pakistan PM Imran Khan frequently referred to India during his 2-day visit to Sri Lanka, projecting himself as someone who had always advocated dialogue as the way forward for the two neighbors even as New Delhi took two steps back.
Addressing the Pakistan-Sri Lanka Trade and Investment Conference in Colombo on Wed, Khan said one of his first tasks after assuming office was to “explain” to PM Narendra Modi the need to resolve all differences through dialogue for the sake of peace and prosperity in the subcontinent.
The only way the subcontinent can tackle poverty is by improving trade relations. Let us live like civilized neighbors, just as the Europeans live,” he said.
Similarly, my dream for the subcontinent is that we resolve our differences,” he said, adding that the Kashmir issue was the only reason for conflict in the region.
Apprehensions about Khan raking up the Kashmir issue had reportedly led Colombo to cancel his planned address to the Sri Lankan parliament.
Some within the Sri Lankan Govt fear that allowing Khan to speak to parliamentarians against Delhi’s policies of Delhi could harm the island country’s ties with India.
“All we want is for the Kashmir dispute to be resolved according to the UN Security Council’s resolutions, and this can only be achieved through dialogue,” Khan said at the trade and investment conference.
He also expressed hope that Pakistan could play its part in reducing rising tensions between the US and China.
At the end of his address, Khan urged the Sri Lankan business community to participate in the over $60b-China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project.

Pak Extends $50 mn Defense Line Of Credit To Sri Lanka

- Wrapping up his two-day visit to Sri Lanka, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan has announced a $50 million defense line of credit for the island nation.
- This comes barely days after India extended lines of credit worth $50 mn and $100 mn to the Maldives and Mauritius, respectively to boost their defense capabilities.
- Khan’s visit comes against the backdrop of Sri Lanka pulling out of a 2019 agreement with Indian and Japan for developing Colombo Port East Container Terminal.

China spreads its tentacles with arms exports-ANI

Imagery from 1 Feb’s Myanmar coup brought a reminder of the success that China’s arms exports have had in many parts of the world.
Pictures from the coup showed Chinese-built WMA301 6×6 assault guns on Myanmar streets, for instance. Indeed, China is currently the 5^th-largest arms exporter in the world.
Data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) stated that from 2010-14 China sold to 40 different markets, but in the 2015-19 period, it had risen to 53 different countries.
From 2005-09 till 2010-14, Chinese weapon sales snowballed an astonishing 133%, though it has calmed down significantly since then.
From 2015-19, Asia and Oceania represented the majority of Chinese weapon sales (74%), with another 16% going to Africa and 6.7% to the Middle East.
Pakistan has been China’s largest export market since 1991, and when the USA stopped providing military aid to Islamabad, this only increased Pakistani reliance on China as its main supplier.
Thus, 73% of Pakistani arms purchases came from China in the 2015-19 period.
China enjoyed 5.5% share of the global arms market from 2015-19, and SIPRI data revealed that its three biggest export markets from 2015-19 were Pakistan (35%), Bangladesh (20%) and Algeria (9.9%).
Significantly, China was still the fifth-largest importer of arms in 2019, most of this being equipment acquired from Russia (76%), principally Su-35 fighters, S-400 surface-to-air missiles (SAM) systems and fighter jet engines.
Last Dec, SIPRI released a report entitled “Mapping the International Presence of the World’s Largest Arms Companies”. It stated that arms sales by the globe’s 25 largest defense companies had risen 8.5% to #361 billion in 2019.
The position of the top 5 arms companies – all American: Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and General Dynamics – is not in jeopardy, but four Chinese companies appear in the top 25 globally.

After Brahmaputra, Chinese dam construction on the Mekong raises hackles in Washington

The Biden administration in the US has urged China not to impede the flow of Mekong river waters to Southeast Asian countries downstream.
Suspicions about the use of transboundary rivers for geopolitical gains was recently highlighted by when it reported that China had constructed 11 dams over the Mekong, threatening water flows to several ASEAN countries. [See Newsletters of Oct 7^th & Dec 14 last yr.]
Besides, China had decided to build a 60-GW mega-dam on the Brahmaputra River, just 30 km away from the Indian border, which could restrict the water flows to India and Bangladesh. The Mekong is the longest river in the region with a length of approximately 4900 km, flowing from its source on the Tibetan Plateau in China through various Southeast Asian countries.