Newsletter 23 December

Sino-Indian Standoff: Fingers Crossed in Delhi

Army chief General MM Naravane visits forward areas along LAC in Leh

Indian Army chief General MM Naravane on Wed visited forward areas along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh’s Leh to access the situation.
The Army chief was on a one-day tour to Leh where he met 14 Corps, which is popularly known as Fire and Fury Corps. He also inspected the Rechin La mountain pass, reported ANI.
The visit came in the midst of Sino-India tensions. Nearly 50,000 troops of the Indian Army are deployed in a high state of combat readiness in various mountainous locations in eastern Ladakh in sub-zero temp. China has also deployed an equal number of troops, according to officials.
Sources said Gen Naravane reached Ladakh at 8:30 am on a day-long visit with an aim to review the ground situation in the region that is experiencing harsh winter.
Indian Army identifies as many as 20 sensitive spots along LAC from Ladakh to Arunachal Pradesh which may witness border incursion attempts by Chinese PLA once the winter snow melts.

China-Australia trade row leaves Indian seafarers stranded

A vessel registered to Valletta, Malta and owned and operated by Seascout, Greece has been in anchorage at Bayuquan, China, since Sept loaded with Australian coal. Since Beijing has banned Australian coal imports, his ship, along with many others are stranded off various Chinese ports.
Alongside this vessel, there are over 70 vessels at various Chinese ports, serving as a floating prison to multiple other Indian seafarers.
However, this vessel is not on top of mind of the Indian Govt. They are tracking two other vessels — an Indian flag ship MV Jag Anand which is anchored near Jingtang port in Hebei province since June 13 with 23 Indians as crew on board.
A second ship, MV Anastasia, which has 16 Indians as its crew, is on anchorage near Caofeidian port since Sept 20.
The Chinese Govt is refusing to allow the ships to offload their cargo. The Govt is also refusing to permit crew changes.
As a result many crew members have been on board their ships for over 16 months, which is not allowed by international maritime rules.
The MEA spokesperson said, “The Chinese authorities have conveyed that on account of various Covid-related curbs imposed by local authorities, crew change is not being permitted from these ports.” The International Maritime Organization the apex global body which should have intervened has been made aware of the crisis.
“But they’re not doing much, because it’s China,” said one official. Incidentally, China allowed 3 Korean vessels carrying similar cargo to berth in their ports, even though they had come in after the Indian vessels.
China has been in close communication with India and promptly responded to India’s appeal and provided necessary convenience and assistance in accordance with laws: Chinese Foreign Ministry responded on media reports.

Can China dominate the Indian Ocean?

Today it is legally indisputable that the high seas belong to all. This means China’s navy has as much right to ply the Indian Ocean as any other nation, even though it might make countries like India feel a creeping sense of dread.
Likewise, it is a well-established fact the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has been sailing in the Indian Ocean far more frequently in recent years, compounded by fears that Beijing is seeking to establish new naval bases on periphery of this ocean.
Yet, is China really trying to dominate the Indian Ocean?
Looking back, a major step for China was its first deployment of warships to the Gulf of Aden to join an international counter-piracy effort.
The first trio of warships arrived in Dec 2008, and a task force has seen a constant presence there ever since. Chinese warships remain despite pirate attacks disappearing almost entirely in the area.
However, such assets have also been used for non-combatant evacuation operations in Yemen and Libya, plus ships are available for humanitarian assistance operations.
China is understandably concerned about protecting its sea lanes, the conduits that bring in raw materials (9.3mn barrels oil/day, with 44% of Chinese oil imports coming from the Middle East, in 2018) and which simultaneously deliver finished products to Africa and Europe (20% of China’s GDP comes from exports).
Strategists call these sea lines of communication (SLOC), and Beijing wants to protect them from threats in peacetime and against hostile powers in times of tension or war.
China’s economic investments continue to grow, as does the diaspora of its citizens.
The Middle East and Africa comprise an essential part of Chairman Xi Jinping’s flagship Belt and Road Initiative, and its importance is seen in the fact that Xi has visited the region 18 times since he gained power in 2012.
Furthermore, there are particular chokepoints along these SLOCs, locations where shipping is funneled and becomes particularly vulnerable.
The most obvious of these is the Strait of Malacca between Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia.
Other chokepoints are the Strait of Hormuz, Bab-el-Mandab (the Horn of Africa) and Suez Canal.
China’s interest in the Indian Ocean region is a product of growing commercial interests, with the PLAN being handed the task of safeguarding them.
This is not a new concern, for Beijing’s 2015 Defense White Paper stated that “with the growth of China’s national interests, its national security is more vulnerable to international and regional turmoil…and the security of overseas interests concerning energy and resources, strategic sea lines of communication, as well as institutions, personnel and assets abroad, has become an imminent issue”.
In actual fact, three critical factors affect how China can project power, protect its SLOCs and keep chokepoints open. The PLA is acutely aware of all three, and much effort is devoted to negating current disadvantages.

The PLAN’s rather modest presence in the Indian Ocean, especially compared to powers like India or the USA.
The PLAN’s limited air defense and anti-submarine warfare capacity.
China’s rather limited logistics/sustainment infrastructure along the Indian Ocean’s periphery.

If China is to dominate the Indian Ocean, if that is its aim, it must address each of the above weaknesses.

DRDO today successfully carried out the trials of the Medium Range Surface to Air Missile systems developed for the Indian Army. In the trials, the missile secured a direct hit on the target. It is jointly developed by DRDO and Israel Aerospace Industries.
8100 People shifted from 2.5 km radius of Integrated Missile Test Range off around Odisha as safety measure for scheduled missile test today.

J-K DDC polls: PAGD bags 112 seats, BJP single-largest with 75 seats

People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD), led by Farooq Abdullah, bagged 112 seats in the first-ever elections to the 288 District Development Councils (DDCs) while BJP emerged as the single-largest party winning 75 seats as the counting of votes is underway.
The PAGD comprises of 7 parties- (JnK National Conference (NC-67), People’s Democratic Party (PDP-27), JnK People Democratic Front (PDF-2), CPI (Marxist-5), JnK People Movement (JKPM-3), Sajjad Lone’s JnK People’s Conference (JKPC-8) and Muzaffar Shah’s Awami National Conference.
Congress-26, JnK Apni Party -12 (Registered after abrogation of 370), JnK National Panthers Party (JKNPP-2), BSP-1 while Independent got 50.
JnK BJP chief R Raina said that his party has performed well and has a clearly majority in 6 districts in Jammu.
National Conference leader Omar Abdullah had said that the PAGD has been formed to ensure the rights of the people of JnK and Ladakh are restored.
While Farooq Abdullah was chosen as president of the People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration, Mehbooba Mufti was picked to play a role of vice-president.

Awantipora Police along with 42RR & 180 BN CRPF busted a module of proscribed outfit Jaish-e-Mohammad involved in grenade lobbing incidents in Tral & Sangam area of Anantnag district.

Incriminating material recovered from the possession of 6 arrested terror associates, who have been in contact with Pakistani handlers and have targeted security forces by lobbing grenades upon security forces in recent past.
The arrested persons have been involved in the pasting of threat poster of election boycott in Tral area: JnK Police

Govt of India loses Cairn tax case at international tribunal

International Court of Justice said that the Indian tax department’s demand was in breach of fair and equitable treatment under the bilateral investment protection agreement.
3 months after India lost arbitration to Vodafone over retrospective legislation at the ICJ in the Hague, in another blow, the Indian Govt on Tue lost international arbitration to British energy giant Cairn Energy and awarded damages of $1.2 bn.
ET Now learns that the ICJ in its order has maintained the Cairn tax issue is not a tax dispute but a tax-related investment dispute hence falls under jurisdiction.
ICJ said that the Indian tax department’s demand was in breach of fair and equitable treatment under the bilateral investment protection agreement.
“The Govt will be studying the award and all its aspects carefully in consultation with its counsels. After such consultations, the Govt will consider all options and take a decision on the further course of action, including legal remedies before appropriate fora,” the Govt said in a statement.
It is stated that the award in the arbitration case under India-UK Agreement for Promotion and Protection of Investments invoked by Cairn Energy Plc and Cairn UK Holdings Limited against GoI has been passed.
Sources indicate that India may opt to appeal in both the cases as it doesn’t want to set a precedent and thinks that tax issues fall under purview of the sovereign.

JV with Chinese player disqualified for Vande Bharat trainsets project

The Indian Railways has disqualified the bid of a consortium of a Chinese company and an Indian firm for the manufacturing of 44 Vande Bharat trainsets costing nearly Rs 1,800 crore. Now there are only two valid bids of BHEL and Medha Servo Drives. Medha, which had got the contract for the manufacturing for the first two such trains, has quoted the lowest bid, sources said.

India registers a record of 11 unicorns in pandemic year

India has seen a record number of unicorns (startups valued at $1 billion or more) being created in 2020. On Tue, two companies Glance and Dailyhunt turned unicorns, taking the year’s total to 11. In 2019, 9 ventures became unicorns, and in the year before, it was 8.

Cabinet today decided to approve revision in guidelines for providing DTH services in the country. Now, DTH license to be issued for 20 years, the license fee will be collected quarterly. Union Cabinet has approved the merger of Films Division, Directorate of Film Festivals, National Film Archives of India, and Children’s Film Society, India with National Film Development Corporation: Union Minister Prakash Javadekar on Union cabinet decisions

Raksha Mantri Shri Rajnath Singh reviews plans for Aero India-21

Invites the A&D Business World to India for its Aeroshow
Raksha Mantri Shri Rajnath Singh today reviewed the planning of Aero India-21.
Department of Defence, Ministry of Defense apprised the minister that the event conforms to current International Guidelines for Exhibitions and that the event is planned to be a Business focused exhibition.
The public, which is usually enthralled with the visuals of the Air Display, will witness this year’s edition in Virtual mode to make way for the Safe in-person interactions between global A&D Businesses so as to forge partnerships in the New Year.

NEIGHBORHOOD/ WORLD

Nepal Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli has been removed as the parliamentary leader of NCP amid an internal turbulence within the Himalayan nation’s ruling party that has triggered a fresh political crisis.

Chinese Ambassador to Nepal, Hou Yanqi met President Bidya Devi Bhandari at Sheetal Niwas on Tue evening around 6 pm.
The Ambassador met the President at the time when the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) is heading for a split after President Bhandari dissolved the Parliament on the recommendation of PM KP Oli.
As per Nepal media, the Chinese Embassy had asked for a time through the Foreign Ministry to meet the President a week ago.
Ambassador Yanqi has been swinging into action when a dispute in the ruling party reaches a climax.
It has been proven that as the feud within the ruling party heightens; Yanqi becomes proactive in Kathmandu as she makes harried moves to visit NCP big-wigs.
Political observers have to note that China, like in the past, has been particularly concerned over the row within the ruling NCP, and the latest political developments here in Nepal.
Party insiders claim that Yanqi will be “on the move” when the intra-party conflict reaches a new height.
It may be noted that Yanqi has been accustomed to intensifying meetings with the NCP top-notch leaders to prevent the party from splitting.
She had also met and discussed with the NCP top leaders, including NCP Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal, senior leader Madhav Kumar Nepal and Jhalanath Khanal in May this year when the party was on the verge of a split.
China’s govt’s move about the micromanagement of Nepali politics has drawn international attention towards Nepal, of late, observers say.
Observers in Nepal dub the ambassador’s moves as unusual while some have taken it an apparent move as this is a mere continuation of such initiations that have taken in the past.

Nepal Supreme Court on Wed sent to the Constitutional Bench writ petitions against President Bidhya Devi Bhandari’s decision to dissolve the Parliament. A 5-member bench led by Chief Justice Cholendra Shumsher JB Rana will hear the matter on Fri.

Dahal in his political proposal submitted at the Secretariat Committee meeting on Nov 13 had accused PM Oli of ‘trying to dissolve the parliament by calling the head of the judiciary to his residence and declaring a state of emergency’.

Most Nepal Communist Party central committee members vote for taking disciplinary action against PM Oli

Pak FO summons Indian diplomat to register protest over ceasefire violation

Foreign Office on Wed summoned Indian Charge d’Affaires to register Pakistan’s strong protest over ceasefire violation by the Indian occupation forces along the Line of Control on Tue.
Foreign Office Spokesperson Zahid Hafeez Chaudhri stated one innocent civilian was martyred and 3 other injured in indiscriminate and unprovoked firing by the Indian occupation forces in Hot spring and Jandrot Sectors of the LoC.
He said in 2020, the Indian forces have carried out 3012 ceasefire violations to date, resulting in 28 shahadats and serious injuries to 253 innocent civilians.

Covid-19

India likely to approve AstraZeneca vaccine by next week

This could be the first country to give the regulatory green light for the British drug maker’s vaccine as the British medicine regulator continues to examine data from the trials. The AstraZeneca-Oxford shot is considered vital for lower-income countries and those in hot climates because it is cheaper, easier to transport and can be stored for long periods at normal fridge temperatures.